Cascade Holiday Classic Tournament

Projected Winner: Elmira

Actual Winner: Gladstone over Elmira  66-64

What we learned:

Gladstone may be better than we thought. They beat Cascade by 12 and then narrowly escaped a fairly good Elmira team for the Championship. They may get through league play with a #2 seed but I do not see them beating LaSalle.

Sisters Holiday Tournament

Projected Winner: Sisters

Actual Winner: Seaside over Philomath 55-53

What we learned:

Sisters could not recover from their holiday hangover down in Phoenix. They did beat a horrible Burns team by 35. Yet against a strong 4A team they again faltered. Seaside went into Sisters and beat them on their own floor by 12. Seaside then went on to beat a strong Oregon West team by 2. This tells us three things. First, Seaside now ranked in the top 5 is a legitimate contender. They haven’t lost since they went into Newport and narrowly lost to the #2 team in all of 4A. Second, Sisters isn’t that tough. They have played a tough schedule and beat the weak teams but when it comes to a good 4A or 3A (Cascade Christian) team they can not do what it takes to win. Sisters has drastically fallen in my power rankings. Lastly, the Oregon West is tough again this year. More on this later

Stayton Christmas Classic

Projected Winner: Central

Actual Winner: Central over Tillamook 50-44

What we learned:

Central is tough. They are going to be a state title contender. Also Tillamook bounced from a 30 point blowout to Central earlier in the year to come within 6 now. Tillamook could be a tough team come March. La Salle ran up against Central again and couldn’t get over the hump. Maybe later for the Falcons. Tanner Omlid is the real deal and teams that do not have a lead going into the 4^th quarter against this Panther team are going to be in trouble especially come March.

Cottage Grove Tournament

Projected Winner: Newport

Actual Winner: Newport

What we learned:

Newport absolutely dominated. They beat Douglas by 60-17 and Cottage Grove (last years State runner up) by 73-42. I understand those teams aren’t great but here is what I see. They allowed Douglas to score only 17 points. Only Central has held another team to that few points when they played Banks (43-17).  To hold a team to 17 points is difficult. Then to crush the #12 team in all of 4A in Cottage Grove by 31 is impressive.

Other Notes:

Phoenix beat 5A #4 Ashland by 60-50, lost to 5A #3 West Albany 78-74 in overtime, and lost to 5A #8 Summit 80-73 in Bend. Does this change my perception? No. It solidifies my analysis that Phoenix can run with anyone 3A, 4A, or 5A. To play that tough against that good of 5A teams is impressive and will help them going into March most assuredly.

North Bend is also creeping back into the 4A landscape of contenders. They have rattled off 6 straight wins after losing to Newport and recently won their own Les Schwab tournament in Coos Bay/N Bend beating rival Marshfield 54-47. They are now ranked in the top 5 and look like a title contender in the Far West conference. I am not sure about their chances in March but they continue to look tougher and tougher.

Sisters fell off the map, La Salle is not good enough right now to get over the hump against one of the top 3, North Bend is still an unknown, Seaside is looking good and moving into a true contender, Roosevelt has two losses and is questionable especially with their loss to a lowly Y-C team and their weak strength of schedule, Tillamook could be on their way back up to good from not so good, and North Valley is still an unknown and we will see how they compete with Phoenix in the Skyline.

One other thing we can see is that the Oregon West Conference has distanced itself as THE ELITE conference in the state. The top 2 teams in the state hail from the OWC and Philomath is looking better and better as well. Central and Newport games will be the place to be in a month or so. Central plays at Newport February 3^rd (5:30) and Newport goes to Central February 21^st for what will probably be a conference championship game. Central looked very good in Stayton. From the scores so did Newport. From what I heard, Newport could have scored 100 on both teams in Cottage Grove had they not pulled their starters as much as they did. The coaching for Central and Newport looks like that of elite programs and with the addition to their athleticism I guarantee that one of these teams will be playing at 8:30pm on March 10^th. I would go as far as to say they could play each other at that time. Phoenix is right there and will be right in the mix. The question is who will be peaking at the right time? Who will be primed for Gill? Who is preparing now for Gill? Only time will tell.

Just like I said in my last article my top 3 teams were as follows:

1. Phoenix
2. Newport
3. Central

Right now I am not going to go beyond this.

              Top 3

1. Central
2. Newport
3. Phoenix

This week’s games to see:

Tuesday Jan 3^rd

Seaside @ Roosevelt 7:30pm

Friday Jan 6^th

Tillamook @ Newport 7pm

La Salle @ Scappoose 7pm

Phoenix @ Mazama

Until someone proves me wrong or another teams creeps into contention this our Elite 3. Let’s wait a week and see how things may change.