The Les Schwab tournament is a good vantage point from which to foresee the state 5A and 6A state tournaments.

With most of the best teams battling each other and three national powerhouse teams at Liberty High School during the holidays, the mid-December coach’s polls now look seriously out of date.

But as much as things looks new, much is the same.

Despite graduating its big stars and four starters, Jesuit is again the team to beat. They fended off two of their top rivals—Lake Oswego and Central Catholic—by the same 52-50 score and then stretched Oak Hill Academy to the limit in the championship game. Three other Oregon teams fell to the Oak Hill juggernaut by 40, 37 and 28 margins, including previously No. 1 ranked Westvew by a 80-43 score.

It’s not just that Jesuit excelled in the tournament, they did it with poise and a young roster of seemingly ordinary athletes who performed superbly as a team. Their top two players are juniors, and three promising underclassmen are contributing. If Jesuit is this good during a building year, when will the rest of the state get a break?

Despite losing to Jesuit, Lake Oswego had an equally impressive tournament, beating two out-of-state teams. The Laker’s narrow loss to Jesuit was reinforced with an overtime loss to the Crusaders in the first game after the tournament, but the difference between these two teams is razor thin. That difference might have gone the other way had Lake Oswego not lost their No. 2 player, Connor Griffin, who wrecked his knee in a dunk contest just before the Les Schwab Invitational.

Westview didn’t exactly embarrass itself in the LSI, losing only to Oak Hill, but that loss was so lopsided it clouded their reputation as Oregon’s best team. They’ll get by. They have the state’s best big man in Landen Lucas, and he doesn’t have to do it alone. They got another transfer starter in Bonhan Stafford, a top-flight outside shooter from Southridge.

They also have maturity. Eleven of the 13 players on their tournament roster were seniors. That sets them apart from the other top teams, none of which are senior-dominated.

Central Catholic belongs with the elite 6A teams, as demonstrated by beating Riverside Academy by 17 points and going to the wire against Jesuit and Westview in the tournament. New coach Dan Munson hasn’t missed a beat since taking over a team that reached the state semifinals in 2011. The Rams are deep and love transition basketball.

The difference between these top four teams is small, and the one that improves the most during league play should be the state champion. Since Central Catholic is the only one breaking in a new coach, the potential for improvement as players and coach adapt to each other may be the X factor.

Lincoln won only one LSI game, but the three losses were all to the national programs: Oak Hill, Yates and Riverside. Although the outcomes weren’t in doubt, the Cardinals did a number of things right, and their star, J.T. Flowers, held up well against the nation’s best. Forget the fact that they only have a 5-6 record on the season; this team should be back in the state tournament and could go all the way.

The 6A team whose stock really went down in the LSI was North Salem, which has the excuse of playing without its top player, Avry Holmes, out with a short-term injury. The Vikings took the booby prize with four losses in the tournament, and the first three bordered on embarrassing. A good team shouldn’t fall this far, no matter who they’ve lost. They’re high-scoring, up-tempo approach descended to street ball without their fourth-year starting guard to lead them.

Southridge also had a lackluster tournament, winning only against North Salem. The Skyhawks are now only 3-8 on the season, and climbing back to .500 may be their upper limit.

The losers bracket was filled with Oregon’s 5A teams and Dayton, the one 3A school in the LSI.

Benson scrambled to the consolation championship, relying on speed and resilience, and getting a big boost off the bench from Jazz Johnson, a freshman. The 5-9 guard is fearless, and he can shoot the extra long ball. Benson replayed the 2011 state championship game against Corvallis in the LSI, turning tables this time and blowing open a close game with a 21-7 fourth quarter.

Reigning state champ Corvallis managed a split of their four LSI games, but that was a big comedown for a team entering the tournament with three starters back from 2010-11 and a No. 1 ranking. The Spartans are now 6-4 and reeling. Returning 5A player of the year Jake Ehlers didn’t have one characteristic game in the LSI, scoring 8-10 points each time. His foul trouble in the consolation finals doomed the Spartans. The 6-7 forward had trouble keeping his hands to himself all tournament, while his shooting touch and offensive rebounding abandoned him. He had only four offensive boards in four games; he’s used to getting that many in a quarter or so. If nothing else, Corvallis knows it can’t rest on its laurels.

Jefferson had only one LSI win, but that was against No. 3 ranked Wilsonville. The Democrats are really young. There are no seniors on the roster, and a freshman point guard, coach’s son Kadeem Strickland, runs the offense. There are six sophomores on the roster. With their baby faces and thin bodies, the Democrats look even younger than they are, but their time is coming. They’ll be better come state tournament time, and in 2012 and 2013, should be better still.

Wilsonville won its last two games at the Les Schwab after losing to Yates and Jefferson, but that was a disappointing performance for a third-ranked team that had been playing high-caliber ball with consecutive wins over Churchill and West Linn. They even beat a team from California 108-11, something akin to a perfect game even if the opponents were middle schoolers. What’s that old proverb? You’re never as good as you look when you win. The Wildcats should get there, but they have work to do before state tournament time.

Of course, the Les Schwab Invitational tells us nothing about the teams that weren’t there. At 6A, North Medford, Grant, West Linn, South Medford, Century and Barlow are likely tournament teams.

At 5A, Mountain View is probably the favorite to win the title. Churchill, Milwaukie and Silverton appear among the best of the rest.