Where does 4A basketball stand now? It has been a little over three weeks since our last post, and a lot of intriguing things have happened in the 4A landscape that has changed a couple of my thoughts and opinions about the impending play-ins around the state and playoffs at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis. I have had the opportunity of seeing some of the better games in the last three weeks and I have a little bit clearer picture of where teams are at in a bunch of different categories. Lets go through the OSAA top 5 as of January 23^rd.

#1 Central Panthers (12-1)

Central is still who we thought they were, an elite program with an elite player and not much else to show. If they can get  a slim lead on a team they will milk it by going four corners and shortening the game. They play extremely intense in your face man to man. Against teams that can overmatch them on the boards and has someone to defend their only real deal player (Tanner Omlid), they are going to struggle (see Roosevelt). Teams that Central will have problems with later in the season are Newport, Seaside, Roosevelt and Newport again.

#2 Seaside Seagulls (16-1)

Seaside is a HUGE surprise. Ranked #1 for a short stint the last couple of weeks, they have gone on a 15 game winning streak since losing its first game of the season.  The only game Seaside lost was to #3 Newport. In a recent article by The Oregonian Seaside coach Bill Westerholm said of Newport, “They’re a team with good athletes and they’re physical. They kind of opened our eyes that we can’t go through the motions. They were so physical, getting into our offense was almost impossible.” The question that one can ask is who has Seaside played outside of Newport? They have beaten #6 Roosevelt, #7 Sisters, and #13 Philomath. They have moved into one of my Elite 8/Possible Final 4 Teams. Can they win the Cowapa? Can they beat Tillamook? Can they beat Scappoose who is starting to look better and better each week?

# 3 Newport Cubs (12-1)

All I can say is wow. I watched Newport completely dismantle the Cheesemakers of Tillamook on January 6^th. The final score was only 49-29 but Newport pulled their foot off the gas way early. Tillamook couldn’t do anything against the brutal physicality of Newport. 2 time All State wing Jordan Schriber looked so frustrated and confused you wouldn't think the guy was even an all league player when in actuality he has been on the All state team since he was a sophomore thanks to the domineering defense of Oshay Dunmore and Co. Their defense is stifling, their presses are suffocating, their zones are far reaching. Time after time they forced turnovers, had many fast break opportunities and multiple dunks in traffic. From the two games I have seen, what I have heard, and the comments Bill Westerholm of Seaside had about Newport it seems that even if Newport’s offense isn’t in full gear their defense will get them out of a jam. But about their offense, it is pretty dangerous in its own right. They have many weapons inside and out. As for the rumors of impatience we have heard about, Coach Mike Williams seems to have righted that ship. Against Tillamook in the second half, with a comfortable lead, there were over 5 possessions where Newport toiled through their offense for 30 seconds or longer much to the demise of Tillamook. I find it hard to believe that anyone can beat this team if they play with their intense, stifling defensive game matched with their patient, methodical offensive stability. Can Newport keep their heads about them and beat Central? Can they win the Oregon West? I think the coaches got it right voting Newport #1.

#4 North Valley (15-2)

Much like Seaside this team is out of nowhere. Their only loss came to Phoenix over a month ago and they have already avenged that loss when it counted in league play with a one point victory at home. Not only have they beaten the defending state champion Pirates but they have beat 3A #5 Santiam Christian by 20, #6 Cascade Christian by 10, and 5A #10 Ashland by 17. They have a great inside presence, a good point guard, but their perimeter play is their downfall. If and when they come up against a team that can outplay them on the interior, handle their pressure, and pressure them into mistakes like Phoenix did the first time (48-64 loss) they will be in trouble. Yet up to this point that has only happened once. This team is scary and anyone with a potential matchup with the Knights will be in for a long night. Can they finish off Phoenix for the Skyline league title? Can they make a long run into the playoffs?

#5 Phoenix Pirates (14-3)

In the OSAA rankings they are #5. In the latest coaches poll they are #3 behind Central and Newport.  I think they are more in the #1-2 position in all reality. Come on look at the numbers. Against 4A schools they are 9-1. Their losses are by a total of 12 points. #3 North Valley by 1, 5A #10 West Albany by 4 and 5A #16 Summit by 7. They are extremely good on the perimeter but lack depth and have zero interior presence. When Young and Dungannon are on watch out. I still like Phoenix going deep but just maybe not in the Finals maybe Final 4.

My Top 5

1. Newport
2. Central
3. Phoenix
4. Roosevelt
5. North Valley

What Else are we missing?

Roosevelt and North Bend. Roosevelt lost narrowly to Seaside by 1 and beat Central by 5. They are the dangerous dark horse that we have all heard about and wonder about. They will be a top seed and are quite possibly the only team that can match Newport athletically. North Bend is also a team that may be able to make a deep run come March. Two other teams that could be a surprise and creeping are Scappoose and Madras. Watch out.

Elite 8 picks updated

North Bend vs. Newport (Newport 51-39)

Seaside vs. Roosevelt     (Roosevelt 51-47 OT)

North Valley vs. Central (Central 45–41)

Sisters vs. Phoenix (Phoenix 62-60)

Fourth Place Game

Sisters vs. Seaside (Seaside 54-49)

Third Place Game

Roosevelt vs. Phoenix (Phoenix 58-56)

Final 4 picks

Newport vs. Roosevelt (Newport 55-46)

Central vs. Phoenix (Central 61-57 1 OT)

Finals

Newport vs. Central (Newport 68-65 2OT)

*This is one opinion and like all Predictions this may or may not happen. My opinion may also change again by the time the tournament comes around as well. Let league play go!