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Final 4A Playoff Predictions...Updated Wednesday Night

Now that we know who is in and where they sit and the OSAA rankings are now frozen we can make finalized projections about what will happen in the tournament. The most dominant team going into the tourney is Central. Here are my final 2012 projections...

February 25th 4A Play-In

25 Y-C @ 10 Madras                                   10 Madras                                         


16 Tillamook @ 8 LaSalle                             8 La Salle   


23 Gladstone @ 5 Seaside                           5 Seaside                                                   


22 North Marion @ 11 Scappoose               11 Scappoose

20 Cascade @ 7 Sisters                                7 Sisters                               


13 Philomath @ 17 Cottage Grove               13 Philomath


24 Elmira @ 4 Newport                                 4 Newport                                                        


40 Junction City @ 1 Central                         1 Central         



21 Klamath Union @ 6 North Bend               6 N Bend                                                      


15 Mazama @ 18 South Umpqua                 15 Mazama                   


14 Sutherlin @ 3 Phoenix                              3 Phoenix


28 Brookings @ 2 North Valley                      2 N Valley

27 Estacada @ 29 La Grande                        27 Estacada          


31 Crook County @ 19 Baker                        19 Baker                                        


30 Ontario @ 12 Molalla                                12 Molalla                         


26 Stayton @ 9 Roosevelt                              9 Roosevelt                                                       


   

After the play-in, recalibrated Top 16 for tournament bracket placement:

1 Central
2 North Valley
3 Phoenix
4 Newport
5 Seaside
6 N Bend
7 Sisters
8 La Salle
9 Roosevelt
10 Madras

11 Scappoose

12 Molalla
13 Philomath
14 Mazama
15 Baker
16 Estacada

Though Central is #1 they have a bad draw with Roosevelt in the Quarters which is the first game at Gill. Their only loss came to Roosevelt and I do not see Central beating Roosevelt. A great season for Central leaves them as Consolation Champs. North Valley and Phoenix are on a crash course for a semi-final clash to get to the title game. I do not see North Valley beating their skyline foe 4 times in a row. Phoenix punches its ticket to its second straight title game. In a pre-edited prediction Newport had the easiest route. Yet now they will have to go through Scappoose who is hot right now. OSAA will swap Phoenix and Newport's 2nd round matchups due to Newport/Philomath league matchup and will have what you see below. I like Newport and Seaside as winners. Then I think Newport would play Seaside who has had a good run this season but what made them good was their team play and their confidence. They have lost that in the last week. Newport gave Seaside it's first loss and they will deliver them their last one. This sets up a semi-final clash against Roosevelt. Watching Roosevelt and Newport this year I see Newport easily matching Roosevelt's athleticism and out matching them with their execution. This sets up a rematch of an early season bout of Newport vs. Phoenix which I see Newport winning. Newport lost by 20 last night to Central at Central. However the game was closer than that and if Newport makes their layups it is a different game. Newport was greatly improved from their first to second contest against Central. It is just too bad Central will get such a bad draw so soon in the tourney. If they can get past Roosevelt they will be this years champion but I do not see that happening. Again these are my predictions! We will know in 3 weeks what the reality is. And that is why they play the games!

First Round            Quarterfinals      Semi-Finals            Championship

1      Central               1 Central
16    La Grande
                                                                  9 Roosevelt
8       La Salle             9 Roosevelt
9       Roosevelt
                                                                                            4 Newport
5       Seaside             5 Seaside
12     Molalla
                                                                  4 Newport
13    (14 Mazama)     4 Newport
4      Newport

                                                                                                                                   4 Newport

3      Phoenix              3 Phoenix
14    (13 Philomath)
                                                                 3 Phoenix
11     Scappoose        11 Scappoose
6       N Bend
                                                                                              3 Phoenix
7       Sisters                7 Sisters
10     Madras
                                                                 2 N Valley
15    Baker                   2 N Valley
2      N Valley   

I think that there will be many upsets. Upsets are just by the OSAA rankings...so they may not be all that upsetting. Here is my upset meter of #1-5 most to least likely to happen:

5. LaSalle over Roosevelt. Thats no typo. Roosevelt is the favorite in everyones book and they are ranked in the coaches poll like it #3. If LaSalle can pull this one off, and I mean a big if, it would be an upset.

4. Molalla over Phoenix. I do not think this is likely at all but I have to put it out there. Molalla has quality wins over Scappoose early in the year, and Madras by 5 a week ago. Can they take down Phoenix at Phoenix? Doubtful. But hey who thought North Valley could do it three straight times this year? Its a possibility

3. Madras Over Sisters. They played earlier in the year and Madras only lost by 7. This could go either way but I like the Buffs over Sisters in a rematch possibly.

2. Molalla over Seaside. Seaside is on a 2 game slide and Molalla has come close in battles in a tough Tri-Valley conference. I think Molalla can overtake Seaside in Seaside to setup a rematchbut won'tl.

1. Scappoose over North Bend. Scappoose is hot. They have played some tough competition. North Bend has had one of the easiest schedules all year. Their conference was horrible and they ride a 17 game winning streak into the playoffs. But against who? Go look for yourself. I take Scappoose for sure over North Bend.