Weekly Wild Guesses Return For Playoff MisPicks

4A Coaches state wide have been dreading the appearance of this column, where by I doom more post season plans than any number of bad bracket draws or turnovers ever could!

4A Girls

First Round

Cowapa #3 Astoria Fisherwomen (17-7, 7-3) at SkyEm #2 Junction City Tigers (#3) (23-2, 10-2). Best game of the first round, and a the toughest draw possible for both teams. Fish won’t like having this Tiger by the tail though. Tigers take out their annoyance at having to play an extra round.

Far West #3 North Bend Brown Bulldogs (11-12, 7-3) at SkyEm #2 Marist Spartans (#10T) (18-9, 7-5). Decent season for the Brown Dogs. But this is Marist, and this is tournament time. Too early to even think about picking against the Spartans. Ask La Pine.

Capital #3 Stayton Eagles (#8) (16-11, 6-6) at GOL #2 La Grande Tigers (10-13, 5-4). Someone from the Capital has to deal with the GOL every year. This time, its Stayton again. The Eagles are 3 baskets from being on a 9-0 run, and have the defense to be in the hunt almost every night. The Tigers have stumbled into the post season, with 1 win in a month. Eagles fly on.

GOL #3 Baker Purple Bulldogs (12-12, 4-5) at Skyline #3 Phoenix Pirates (17-10, 10-5). Baker is always tough this time of the year, but Phoenix appears to come from a slightly stronger circuit this time. This is probably close enough that the looooong haul is a factor. If in Baker, I’d take the Bulldogs; it’s in Phoenix, so I’ll take the Pirates. Second best game of the round, though.

3-1, not too bad!

Second Round

Far West #2 Douglas Trojans (13-10, 7-3) at GOL #1 Ontario Tigers (#4) (22-3, 9-0). Douglas is a consistently solid program. So is Ontario, and this is an up year for them. The O-Tigers are also happy to finally not see Stayton in playin week. Long bus ride over for Douglas, and a longer ride back. Tigers roll.

Astoria/Junction City winner @ Skyline #1 Hidden Valley Mustangs (#6) (21-4, 13-2). Big opportunity for HV to prove their boys aren’t the only basketball team in town, and prove the Skyline belongs. Too big a challenge though, as the Tigers are looking for those other Tigers, and beyond. JC is on a mission.

North Bend/Marist winner @ Capital #1 North Marion Huskies (#2) (20-4, 11-1). A Marist win keeps the longest streak of tournament appearances going intact. But the Spartans are a little down (by their standards), and the Huskies are riding a strong group of seniors. NM has the defense to deal with tough opponents, and one of the better home court advantages around. Huskies write some history after an instant classic.

Cowapa #2 Seaside Seagulls (#10T) (17-6, 7-3) at ValCo #2 Central Panthers (14-12, 8-4). Gulls have too much offense (56.5 ppg vs. 40.5 for the Panthers) for the most vulnerable second seed of the tournament. Also, the Cowapa is never frozen out of the tournament; Gulls go to Gill.

Skyline #2 Henley Hornets (19-6, 12-3) at ValCo #1 Newport Cubs (20-4, 12-0). The Hornets come from a much stronger circuit. The Cubs have one of the few players in Rylee Peterson that can change a game single handedly. But golly, the Cubs don’t have enough else. Hornets swarm to the win in what should be one of the more competitive games of the round.

Stayton/La Grande winner at Cowapa #1 Tillamook Cheesemakers (#5) (16-7, 8-2). Tillamook has 6 wins in 11 games against teams that went to state, a 9 game winning streak, and they already beat Stayton on the Eagles floor. Tilly is also a tough place to play, while the Eagles are getting road weary, in their 4^th. big road game in their last 5 outings. Offense gives up when legs get tired, and the Eagles can’t afford that. Cowapa gets a second team to the tournament, while the tough Capital grind grinds up another team.

Baker/Phoenix winner at Far West #1 Sutherlin Blue Bulldogs (#9) (19-5, 10-0). Could be a real dog fight, even if it’s the Pirates instead of the Purple Dogs, who would be making a swing on their state tour. Won’t matter, as Sutherlin is a solid team, and the Bluedogs are on a 10 game run. Sutherlin returns to Gill.

Capital #2 Cascade Cougars (#7) (18-7, 7-5) at Cottage Grove Lions (#1) (20-4, 11-1). If Cascade can put together another week like the one they had in the second to last week of the season, this whole thing won’t mater. If they shoot the way they did the next week, when they had their only losing streak of the year, this whole thing still might not matter, but it will be the Lions tearing things up. Neither extreme is likely to eventuate, however. Cottage Grove is 8-3 against teams in these playoffs, and on a 12-1 run, with only a loss at La Pine in that stretch. Cascade is 4-4 against playoff teams, and CG won the first meeting, also on the Lions’ floor, and without one of their key players in Reed Levings in that contest. Lions take care of business, leaving Cascade wondering about what would have happened if they had drawn a trip to Central or Newport instead.

(Well, that didn't work! 4-4; have to overhaul the picks big time!)

Tournament First Round

Ontario vs. Junction City. Tiger fight that could be marketed as a cage match. Interesting differences include that JC is undefeated against playoff teams not from Cottage Grove, while Ontario has a win over CG. The other common opponent, Cascade, defeated O, but lost to JC. Scoring margins are similar, and this could well be headed for overtime, or a last shot to win. JC has the home advantage, and gets the nod.

It's HV instead of JC, after an instant classic, and that changes the pick to O, in another instant classic.

North Marion vs. Seaside. Gulls are glad to be at Gill; Huskies have higher hopes. North Marion faced the stronger schedule despite what the SOS shows. Losing by a bucket to 2A Champion Salem Academy, and three games against 1A runner up St. Paul, don’t carry the weight they should. Combined with six other wins against playoff teams before the playoffs, the Huskies will be prepared for the Gulls. Expect Seaside to score above the normal North Marion defensive numbers, but not enough more.

It's Marist instead of NM, and but that doesn't change the pick of Seaside to go to the Consys. Too early to pick against Marist again!

Henley vs. Tillamook. Final Four surprise game. Very likely as competitive as the Tiger fight too. Having a hard time separating these two, as the ‘Mooks will be on a 10 win run by this point, while the Hornets have a higher Colley rating, usually a good indicator when picking tough matchups. Despite the perplexing Phoenix loss, I’ve found bucking a significant difference in the Colley rating is risky, and NCEagle underscored the importance of the numbers last year. So I’m going with the Hornets to buzz off with this one.

It's Newport and Stayton instead, and while Newport has the single best player in this one, Stayton's best isn't far back, and the rest of the Eagles are better. Sorry Golly, gotta go with the boss, and the Stayton staff, who already harassed me about no faith in the defending champs.

Sutherlin vs. Cottage Grove. These teams are neighbors, except for a fairly big hill, despite being in separate circuits. Trap opportunity, as the Lions face what appears to be the easier bracket after overcoming Cascade. Bluedogs would love to crash the party, but CG has come too far to get caught off guard. They also have guards that are too good. Sutherlin to the morning games; Lions take advantage of the favorable tournament bracket.

No change here; Sutherlin is still solid, but CG did nothing to drop their stock either.

Consy Games

Ontario vs. Seaside. Tigers are better than at least one final four team, and have gone down the losers’ bracket before. Gulls get to go home early.

Got the right teams here!

Tillamook vs. Sutherlin. Probably another very competitive game. Cheesers seem to be good at finding the final day. Blue bulldogs see a good season come to an end a day early.

Wrong every which way! It's Newport and Cottage Grove (I've got a LOT of company in that mistake!) Lions are still a good team, and a young team. This will only make them better next year. They will be better than the Cubs in the morning game too. Rylee will help with the Lion development plan, but won't get enough help. CG gets a trophy.

SemiFinals

Junction City vs. North Marion. Last chance for North Marion and the Capital Conference to step up against the SkyEm. Big chance for the Tigers to get another shot at the Lions. Single conference championships aren’t real common, and we just had one. I’m concerned about the Huskies’ depth, but having a hard time going with an all SkyEm final too. JC is the most likely team to break thru the top two. Coaching is superior in both cases. While JC is capable of big offense, they have been in some lower scoring games against their top opponents, and that’s right down NM’s alley. Huskies to the final.

Henley vs. Cottage Grove. Hornets have had a great run, but it comes to an end now. Kaitlyn Kronberger is the most dangerous weapon in the tournament, and will go off at some point. Probably just in time to swat away the Hornets. Lions to the final.

Not one of them made it! Instead, we have Hidden Valley and Marist, and Stayton and Sutherlin.

Marist is Marist, and more importantly, they have even more big gals than HV. Spartans back to the title game.

Stayton and Sutherlin could be the most physical battle of the week. There will be 2 keys. How the fouls are called, and how the Eagles shoot. Games have not been called tight all week, so that says these teams will be allowed to fight to the finish. If CG couldn't get inside on the Bluedogs, Stayton will really have a problem. However, that's not their game. Look out for Sutherlin next year, but look out for the Eagles here. Defending champs get to try to defend the title.

(Well, there's 2 more wrong!)

4^th. & 6^th. Place

Ontario vs. Tillamook. Tilly has gone about as far as they can go with a good draw. Tigers would have gone further but for their draw. Tigers take fourth, and a hunk of cheese for the drive home.

It's Cottage Grove instead, and that's a big instead. In a classic big cat fight, Lions send the Tigers to their cage.

3^rd. & 5^th. Place Game

Junction City vs. Henley. Tigers will be snarling after seeing a title shot get away. Hornets will be smarting after the Lions get done, and will find out how tough going against Lions and Tigers can be. JC bounces back stronger.

Neither even got to Gill! Instead, it's Marist and Stayton. Stayton has had a solid season for first year coach Jake Miller, and interestingly, the Eagles hold a win at Marist from earlier in the year. But the Spartans have improved significantly, and teams with big posts have caused the Eagles the most trouble. I'll admit to rooting for the Eagles, but picking the Spartans based on size seems sensible. 

Championship

North Marion vs. Cottage Grove. Had it been an all SkyEm final, I would say JC because of the problem with beating a team 3 times, such as North Marion experienced with Stayton. But with the Lions’ fire power, their 2 point win earlier in the season against the Huskies won’t be reversed. Despite a lack of experience at this level, Lions will prevail, as this is when the Husky depth will get exposed. Lions win it all!

Sutherlin and Hidden Valley instead, and the question is if the Mustangs can handle the physical, emotional Bulldogs. Their effort against Marist was most impressive, but I have to think Fikso's ankle is going to stiffen up overnight. However, I'm also concerned about Sutherlin's point scoring. Neither team has a depth advantage, so I'm going with the assumption that the higher ratings across the board still mean something in this strange season. Mustangs in a tough one between two deserving teams.

4A Boys

First Round

SkyEm #3 Sisters Outlaws (#6) (19-5, 9-3) at GOL #2 Baker Purple Bulldogs (13-10, 6-3). Tougher than you might think, but Baker is always a tough place to go. Still, the Outlaws are a cut above.

ValCo #3 Sweet Home Huskies (16-8, 9-3) at Cowapa #3 Seaside Seagulls (12-11, 4-6). Huskies handle the trip, Gulls don’t get out of town, and don’t stay above .500.

Skyline #3 Phoenix Pirates (#10) (19-8, 10-5) at Far West #2 Sutherlin Blue Bulldogs (12-12, 5-5). Similar to Sisters and Baker, Sutherlin is a good program, and a win in their house is always a good one. Phoenix will get it though, as Sutherlin is also a middle of the pack team, and the Skyline is the deeper league.

Capital #3 Molalla Indians (12-13, 7-5) at Far West #3 North Bend Brown Bulldogs (16-8, 8-2). North Bend suffered a surprise against Sutherlin, but it’s actually a good thing. The Brown Bulldogs still get a home playoff game, and an easier opponent. Molalla has managed three wins in their last four games, but the Indians’ depth isn’t sufficient, and North Bend gets to go to LG.

3-1 again; so far so good.

Second Round

Capital #2 Stayton Eagles (13-12, 8-4) at Cowapa #3 Astoria Fishermen (16-8, 8-2). Two of the storied, historic programs in the state collide. Stayton has sustained the solidity of their program in the transition to new Coach Tal Wold, but Astoria has a lot of big home wins, and will add another chapter to their legendary history.

Sisters/Baker winner at ValCo #1 Philomath Warriors (#9) (17-7, 9-3). Outlaws rack up the miles, but will have enough for the Warriors. Unless Philomath’s Kevin Boss suits up, and that would violate several contracts, the Warriors won’t have quite enough firepower to overcome Sisters. Outlaws double back 10 minutes to Gill, taking the home team out of the tournament.

Sweet Home/Seaside winner at Skyline #1 Hidden Valley Mustangs (#5) (21-4, 13-2). The Mustangs desperately want to get back to Gill. The champions two years ago were eliminated in the second round in Baker by 3 points by the eventual champions last year. And Hidden Valley has the horses to make a run again. Huskies get stampeded.

SkyEm #2 Junction City Tigers (#4) (22-3, 10-2) at Far West #1 Brookings-Harbor Bruins (#2) (20-2, 10-0). Best game of the first round. Tigers deserve to go to Gill, more than some who will. But it’s a long, long ride to Brookings, and the Bruins haven’t been beaten by an Oregon team all year (sound like HV 2 years ago?). In the Coastal Collision of the week, the Bruins win a barn burner that deserves to be a final four game. In another HV historic parallel, similar to last year in Baker, its possible this could prove to be the championship game, played in a far corner of the state.

ValCo #2 Newport Cubs (19-7, 8-4) at Cowapa #1 Tillamook Cheesemakers (#8) (17-5, 10-0). Coastal neighbors get back together. Tillamook took Newport by 20 the first time around, also in Tilly, and while the Cubs are much improved, the ‘Mooks haven’t stood still, and have a 12 game winning streak. It’ll be closer, but golly, the Cheesers get both teams to the tournament a lot.

Phoenix/Sutherlin winner at Capital #1 Cascade Cougars (16-8, 9-3). A competitive game, and the winner has a good shot at the final four. The RPI, Colley, and BCS ratings have these teams next to each other, so the game should be a great matchup. Pirates have a little more offense, and play a little tighter defense though, and that could translate to an extra bucket at the end. I’m going to try the Cougar jinx on the Pirates and pick Phoenix to join Sisters in winning 2 on the road to Gill. (That should pull out the win for the Cougars!)

Molalla/North Bend winner at GOL #1 La Grande Tigers (#1) (23-1, 9-0). Why on earth are they bothering? Tigers take a tune up, and hit the road for Corvallis. One hates to disrespect any team, much less one that makes the playoffs, but this appears to be the mismatch of the round. And with fuel up 50 cents a gallon in the last three weeks, an expensive one as well.

Skyline #2 Henley Hornets (#7) (19-5, 12-3) at SkyEm #1 Marist Spartans (#3) (21-4, 11-1). Second best game of the round, but this time it’s the Hornets that don’t get to Gill from the Skyline. And, as I’ve picked Marist’s girls to come up a game short, the boys have to get to Gill. (It’s in the OSAA bylaws that the Spartans must appear in the tournament in one form or another.)

5-3; 8-4 overall; a very competitive year continues!

Tournament First Round

Sisters vs. Astoria. The Outlaws’ best team in a while introduce themselves to another segment of the state.

Instead, it's Stayton and Philomath. Can't quite see both Stayton teams back to the final four; but Philomath isn't a lock. Still, the Eagles' big win was the great one in Astoria. Warriors win one for the Boss man.

Hidden Valley vs. Brookings-Harbor. The Bruins won both prior meetings by double digits, and haven’t been seriously challenged since before the first of the year. Expect Hidden Valley to make a bertter showing the third time around, but the Bruins will prevail.

Still solid here.

Tillamook vs. Phoenix. The boys’ side surprise final four participant, courtesy of the brackets, comes from this one. Too many puzzling outings to believe the Pirates can keep it going. Packy gets a ticket to the final 4, as well as the Cheesers.

It's Newport, after taking Tilly out! Cubs are one of the most improved teams; but Phoenix is too tough inside. Pirates press on.

La Grande vs. Marist. Tigers get a test, but are headed for Saturday night, and the Spartans will have to settle for Saturday morning. This is another game that should come a round later.

Another place still on pace in the race.

Consy Games

Astoria vs. Hidden Valley. Mustangs are a better team, who got a tougher draw. Fish swim home, while Hidden Valley gets a trophy.

It's Philomath instead of the Fish, and the Boss man didn't show up. But it's still HV, and the Mustangs are still better than either.

Phoenix vs. Marist. More bracketology at work. While Phoenix wasn’t hardly anyone’s pick for a final 4 team, I’m not sure they should go home early either. But Marist probably should be a final 4 team. Spartans get a trophy.

This is La Grande and Phoenix. Can't believe the Tigers aren't actually a top 5 team; Tigers should bounce back.

SemiFinals

Sisters vs. Brookings-Harbor. Bruins round up another herd of horses. The concept of “Big, Bad Bruins” is something seen before in Corvallis. Sisters’ streak stops.

It's still an S team, but it's Stayton. Unfortunately, its also still the Big, Bad Bruins. Eagles to the third place game.

Tillamook vs. La Grande. Tigers want another shot at the title that eluded them two years ago. Cinderella story ends here, as La Grande chomps the cheese.

All wrong again. Newport and Marist, in a shootout. The Cubs continue to prove they are no fluke, but Marist looked awfully good against La Grande. Cubs get an afternoon game, and the Spartans do a Stayton, and go after a sweep.

(Got both of these right, and at least have one team in the finals.) 

4^th. & 6^th. Place

Hidden Valley vs. Marist. Great matchup to be a morning game. Marist is used to giving up about the same number of points as HV is used to scoring. However, the Spartans are used to scoring way more points than the Mustangs are accustomed to allowing. That difference carries Marist to the Consolation trophy.

Got HV right, but instead of Marist, who is playing much later in the day, its Phoenix, in a Skyline rematch. The Mustangs took 2 of 3, and every kind of game happened in the series. Both are playing well right now, but I think the Mustangs have more horses. HV maintains the upper hand in the series. 

3^rd. & 5^th. Place Game

Sisters vs. Tillamook.

Neither team even got here; instead it's Newport and Stayton, and both teams earned the right to be here, several times. The improvement in the Cubs is hard to overstate. Stayton can win if they are hot, but the Cubs will be hot at some point. Cubs cap a surprising season. 

Championship

Brookings-Harbor vs. La Grande. Bruins put up a battle, but Tigers take care of unfinished business. Brookings-Harbor will be happy, getting farther than ever before. La Grande won’t be with second. GOL gets back to back titles, as the hungry Tigers also get farther than ever before, and get the Championhsip.

The Bruins made it, but it's Marist instead. And that's scary. But if Gianni Carter's ankle swells up, or stiffens up, it could cost the Spartans just a little too much.  Bruins must hit free throws, and have their big 3 outscore Marist's. And by enough to withstand the Spartans' greater depth. The Bruins' first ever title game appearance compared to the Spartan tradition could be a factor, but it doesn't apply to some of these players. I'm thinking the Bruin defense, and their solid style of play, independent of their talent, allow them to take the edge off the Spartans. Biggest win ever for the Bruins, at least until next year.

(We’ll update these as mistakes necessitate and time allows!)

CC