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North Marion 2019 4A Special District 2 League Champs!

| October 26,2019

North Marion 2019 4A Special District 2  League Champs!

How big was Friday night for The North Marion Huskies? Well let’s start with the first outright league Football title, in at least 60 years. 

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2018 Premature Playoff Predictions, Week 4

Jeff Drumm | September 28,2018

2018 Premature Playoff Predictions, Week 4

It's time for another season of Premature Playoff Predictions. Much has changed about Oregon high school football in the past year, but I got my spreadsheets adjusted, and (assuming I didn't make any typos) I'm ready to start guessing at what will happen.   Game predictions are based on the Freeman rankings...

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NM/Woodburn- It's Back!

| September 13,2018

NM/Woodburn- It's Back!

What is Football without a great rival? One of the best ever is back in Northern Marion County! Photo Brent DeLaPaz Woodburn Independent Fall 1986- Pictured Woodburns Kit Cummings, and North Marions Kevin Pearson. Two good friends, who simply wore different uniforms.    The Woodburn/ North Marion rivalry, is one that stretches...

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You are here: Home Football Menu / Archives Football News 2018 Premature Playoff Predictions, Week 4

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2018 Premature Playoff Predictions, Week 4

Cascade Offense DSC00859It's time for another season of Premature Playoff Predictions. Much has changed about Oregon high school football in the past year, but I got my spreadsheets adjusted, and (assuming I didn't make any typos) I'm ready to start guessing at what will happen.

 

Game predictions are based on the Freeman rankings found on calpreps.com. Historically, that site is about 90% accurate when predicting winners and losers, and that's good enough for me. As a side note, I'm doing these projections based strictly on overall rankings on that site and not the individual game projections available there.

 

Qualification rules for all classifications can be found at the OSAA website.

 

I'm not going to bore you with the numbers my spreadsheet puts out. If you would like a copy of the spreadsheet (it's a .xlsx file), you can email me at jdrumm1 at Comcast.net.  I'll include instructions on how to do your own what-if scenarios.

 

Let's look at a league-by-league breakdown of what the rankings say is going to happen (just 4A this week). The teams are ranked, with their projected records. Automatic qualifiers are followed by a *.

 

Premature Playoff Predictions, Week 4

 

Class 4A

This is week 1 of my projections.

Special District 1

 

4A Special District 1

1.    Seaside 8-0*

2.    Banks 6-2*

3.    Molalla 4-4

4.    Valley Catholic 4-4

5.    Astoria 2-6

6.    Tillamook 2-6

Non-4A projections: Scappoose 6-2, Scio 6-2.

 

4A Special District 2

1.    Gladstone 6-2*

2.    Estacada 7-1*

3.    Woodburn 6-2

4.    N Marion 5-3

5.    The Dalles 1-7

6.    Crook County 2-6

 Non-4A Projections: Ridgeview 1-7, Hood River Valley 5-3.

 

4A Special District 3

1.    Newport 8-0*

2.    Sweet Home 5-3*

3.    Cascade 3-5

4.    Stayton 3-5

5.    Philomath/Alsea 3-5

6.    Sisters 0-8

 Non-4A Projections: La Salle 6-2, Siuslaw 0-7, Burns 8-0

 

4A Special District 4

1.    Marshfield 7-1*

2.    Cottage Grove 6-2*

3.    Marist 3-5

4.    Elmira 4-4

5.    Junction City 0-8

 Non-4A Projections: Siuslaw 0-7, N Bend 7-1

 

4A Special District 5

1.    Mazama 6-1*

2.    Klamath Union 5-3*

3.    Henley 3-5

4.    Phoenix 1-7

5.    N Valley 0-7

 Non-4A Projections: Yreka 1-5, Eagle Point 5-3, Cascade Christian 7-1, Del Norte 6-3, Hidden Valley 5-3

 

4A Special District 6

1.    Ontario 6-2*

2.    La Grande 5-3*

3.    Baker 3-5

4.    McLoughlin/Griswold 0-8

 Non-4A Projections: Nyssa 7-1, Homedale 9-0, Pendleton 8-0, Madras 5-3, Weiser 5-3

 

With everything above as projected, the final rankings would come out like this:

Team

RPI

RPI Rank

Colley

CR Rank

Total

1. Seaside*

698.214

2

939.923

1

3

2. Marshfield*

683.036

3

832.492

3

6

3. Gladstone*

726.786

1

826.613

5

6

4. Mazama*

605.635

6

836.975

2

8

5. Estacada**

651.607

4

827.395

4

8

6. Banks**

643.651

5

769.501

6

11

7. Ontario*

593.304

8

748.049

7

15

8. Molalla***

604.464

7

613.700

12

19

9. Newport*

547.321

12

735.533

8

20

10. Klamath Union**

585.387

9

622.978

11

20

11. Woodburn***

524.859

14

675.485

9

23

12. Cottage Grove**

506.250

15

623.806

10

25

13. La Grande**

557.660

11

588.559

14

25

14. N Marion***

546.053

13

612.096

13

26

15. Marist***

572.470

10

509.584

17

27

16. Sweet Home**

499.624

16

541.322

15

31

17. Valley Catholic***

476.786

19

527.325

16

35

18. Baker***

485.417

18

463.925

18

36

19. Cascade***

488.769

17

397.383

22

39

20. Henley***

475.427

20

415.965

20

40

Astoria

472.421

21

409.489

21

42

Elmira

397.932

25

422.052

19

44

Stayton

449.504

22

368.878

23

45

Tillamook

397.240

26

327.049

24

50

The Dalles

419.878

24

294.536

26

50

Phoenix

429.550

23

263.192

28

51

Crook County

389.286

27

314.702

25

52

Philomath

342.262

28

277.496

27

55

McLoughlin/Griswold

274.702

32

145.247

29

61

N Valley

316.156

31

136.031

30

61

Junction City

318.367

30

129.774

31

61

Sisters

325.000

29

91.656

32

61

*= league champ, ** = automatic qualifier, *** = qualified on ratings.

 

The top 12 in this scenario would automatically qualify for the first round of the play-offs.

 

That would make the play-in games:

Henley @ Molalla
Cascade @ Woodburn
Baker @ N Marion
Valley Catholic @ Marist

 

And the first round of the playoffs are projected to be:

Baker @ Seaside
Molalla @ Newport (Newport is guaranteed a home game as league champ)
Cottage Grove @ Estacada
La Grande @ Mazama
Marist @ Gladstone
Woodburn @ Banks
Klamath Union @ Ontario
Sweet Home @ Marshfield

 

Will keep updating, it's still early.

Email me at jdrumm1 @ Comcast.net if you would like a copy. I am @jdrummcghs on twitter.

PIL: Grant 6-0. Lincoln 5-1, Roosevelt 4-2, Cleveland 4-2, Wilson 4-2, Franklin 2-4, Jefferson 2-4, Benson 0-6, Madison 0-6. Looks like the automatics would be Grant, Roosevelt, Lincoln and Cleveland.

 

Metro: Jesuit 7-0, Westview 6-1, Sunset 5-2, Beaverton 4-3, Southridge 3-4, Aloha 2-5, Century 1-6, Glencoe 0-7. That makes the automatics Jesuit, Westview, Sunset and Beaverton.

           

Mt. Hood: Central Catholic 7-0, Oregon City 6-1, Clackamas 5-2, David Douglas 4-3, Barlow 3-4, Centennial 2-5, Reynolds 1-6, Gresham 0-7. That would make the automatics Central Catholic, Oregon City, Clackamas and David Douglas.

 

Three Rivers: Tigard 7-0, Sherwood 6-1, West Linn 5-2, Lakeridge 4-3, Lake Oswego 3-4, Canby 2-5, Newberg 1-6, Tualatin 0-7. That would make the automatics West Linn, Tigard, Sherwood and Lakeridge.

 

Greater Valley: South Salem 8-0, West Salem 7-1, Sprague 6-2, West Albany 4-4, McNary 4-4, Forest Grove 3-5, North Salem 2-6, McKay 1-7, McMinnville 1-7. That would make the automatics South Salem, West Salem, Sprague and West Albany.

 

Southwest: Grants Pass 7-0, Sheldon 6-1, South Medford 5-2, North Medford 4-3, Roseburg 3-4, Thurston 2-5, Willamette 1-6, South Eugene 0-7, That makes the automatics Grants Pass, Sheldon, North Medford and South Medford.

Comments   

-1 #1 Dawgbytes4A 2018-09-30 18:45
Right now I bet 4-A is very glad to see North Bend in 5-A as they would be in the title game for the fourth time in five years had there not been "politically correct" adjusted attendance counts.
0 #2 twodogs32 2018-10-05 11:13
I am confused. CG has already lost 3 games so how are they showing up at 3-2?

Also is the prediction engine saying that North Marion is going to beat either Gladstone or Estacada to finish at 5-3 cause at best i see them finishing 4-4

Same type of comment for Molalla? They have seaside banks and astoria left. sitting at 2-3 but finishing at 4-4 would mean they beat either seaside or banks?

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