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Girls Soccer Menu / Archives

4A 4Cast Week 10

We’re down to the last week of the regular season. 3 Championships are still up for grabs, and who is going where, and when, is still at issue for a lot of folks.

 

Panda 

 

I was 17-4 last week, 156-46 so far. The tough skyline is as tough to pick as it is to win. But that is good. Late season games between teams out of the hunt are always problematic to predict, and that was true in 2 misses this week.

 

“Cowapa Conflicts”  

 

Scappoose Indians (7-2, 3-1) @ Yamhill-Carlton Tigers (7-2, 3-1). Cowapa game of the week, and the Sporty game of the week too. The Indian war was no contest, as ‘Poose pounded the Braves. The Tigers were the crash victims in the Coastal Collision with the Fish. 2 of the best QBs in the state in ‘Poose’s Justin Engstrom & YC’s Zach Anderson square off. Both are going to the playoffs, and both have tough roads ahead. The Tigers have produced a little more offense, but the Indians have had the better defense. And, more balance. Expect a great game, but expect the Indians’ better rushing and defense to pull out the win.

 

Astoria Fishermen (9-0, 4-0) @ Tillamook Cheesemakers (3-6, 2-2). Cheesemakers pulled out an overtime win over the Gulls, while the Fish locked up the Cowapa championship with another impressive win. The Fish are practicing, with a bye before a rematch with LaSalle. But the Cheesemakers are not that much better that soon. Fish swim to a perfect season.

 

Seaside Seagulls (4-5, 0-4) @ Banks Braves (0-9, 0-4). The Gulls have dropped 4 in a row. But the Braves have dropped 11 in a row back to last season. Both teams are struggling on offense, but the Braves’ defense has really been shredded, while the Gulls have been in most of their games. Gulls go out with a better outlook for next year; Braves will try to forget everything about this year.

 

“Valco Violence”  

 

Sweet Home Huskies (3-6, 1-2) @ Philomath Warriors (2-7, 1-2). Playoff game, and the Valco game of the week for that reason. Winner goes to Marist. Loser might be the winner. Huskies were out-scored by JC, while the Warriors were demolished by Central. Neither team has played very well at all, but the Huskies have had some offensive production. The Warriors haven’t, and the Huskies will at least get another game.

 

Central Panthers (4-4, 2-1) @ Taft Tigers (1-7, 0-3). Cat fight will be a clawing. Central earned a return trip to Molalla by beating up Philomath for their Homecoming. Taft fared even worse against the Cubs, and they didn’t even have anything to play for, already having the championship sewed up. Panthers scratch up the Tigers, and enjoy a weekend at the coast.

 

“FarWest Fun”  

 

Siuslaw Vikings (8-0, 4-0) @ North Bend Bulldogs (6-3, 4-0). Coastal Collision of the week. This game appeared to be the FarWest championship game as soon as the schedule came out, and sure enough, here it is. The Vikings added Douglas to their list of victims, while the Brown Bulldogs edged the Blue Bulldogs by 1 in a great game in Sutherlin. North Bend is a very tough place for visitors to win, and this will be as tough a test as the Vikings have faced. A turnover or two could really shake up the playoff outlook, as the FarWest #2 is facing a lot tougher draw.

 

Whether it rains on the Vikings or not, I expect there will be too much Rainwater for the Bulldogs. The Brown Bulldogs are the #7 defense in 4A, but the Vikings are #1 by a mile. The Vikings are also #5 in scoring offense, much better than the Brown Bulldogs. And Viking special teams have been strong. All that will overcome the home field advantage, and earn the Vikings the title.

 

South Umpqua Lancers (2-7, 1-3) @ Sutherlin Blue Bulldogs (4-4, 1-3). The Bruins mauled the Lancers to claim third place. The Bluedogs have lost classics the last 2 weeks, and their playoff hopes in the process. But the Bluedogs are one of the better teams not going to the playoffs, and the Lancers aren’t. Bluedogs salvage a winning season.

 

Douglas Trojans (2-6, 0-4) @ Brookings-Harbor Bruins (5-3, 2-2). The Bruins are headed to the Willamette valley for a playoff date, while the Trojans are on a sight seeing trip to the scenic south coast. Bruins are .500 against 6 playoff teams. Trojans have been drilled 6 weeks in a row, due to almost no offense. Bruins will ensure a winning season, and tune up for the playoffs.

 

“Skyline Skirmishes”  

 

Hornets stung the Pirates with their best game of the year. Mustangs eliminated the Knights, who were really eliminated when they lost their QB Nate Ellis a few weeks before. And in the process, effectively put Phoenix in. Cougars had their turn at padding their stats at the Chieftans’ expense.

  

4 teams are still competing for 3 spots, with nothing assured except that the Cougars can not be #1. But not really. Henley has RR, who has the least productive offense in all of 4A. And that’s an automatic bye next week. Only 1 Skyline team plays in the first round, and it won’t be the Hornets. 

 

Rogue River Chieftans (0-8, 0-4) @ Henley Hornets (6-3, 3-1). Hornets swarm out of the hive, and wait to see what happens in Phoenix. QB Colin Stock will have a field day. 

 

Illinois Valley Cougars (5-3, 2-2) @ North Valley Knights (4-4, 1-3). Cougars will take care of their part, but they need help from the Pirates. The Knights defense will keep it competitive, but not much offense won’t keep up with the Cougars. 

 

Hidden Valley Mustangs (7-2, 3-1) @ Phoenix Pirates (4-4, 3-1). Skyline game of the week. A Mustang win makes their win over Henley mean the championship, and makes their misstep in Cave Junction meaningless. If the Pirates steal it, it hands the title to Henley, and if IV wins, third to the Cougars. Trouble is, the Pirates are still in with a loss. So the Mustangs have much more urgency to their situation. 

 

And with RB Jules DeVos back from injury to compliment QB L.B. Draper and his favorite receiver Jordan VanCleave, and their already multiple threat rushing attack, “Sporty” will prove to have been right on when he predicted HV, Henley, & Phoenix in that order for the Skyline finish. Mustangs gallop off with the title, and back to Murphy, to wait for, most likely, Marist. 

 

It won’t bode well for Henley either, as they will have a week off, but then will head for Sisters. The Pirates will contemplate a trip, likely to North Bend, with the prospect of a trip to I-84 to follow. 

  

“GOL Guesswork”  

 

Tiger-fight went to O-town, and it wasn’t that close. Baker scored more points in the opening quarter than anyone in any 11 man class has this year, and more than even all those 1A scoring festival teams except 1, and the university of Jesuit as well! You don’t want to be a weak team in the way of the Bulldogs when they are mad. This sets up an interesting scenario in the GOL, which gets only 2 playoff teams. Assuming LG wins in Milton Freewater, not much of an assumption, then Ontario wins with a win, and LG gets second. But if Baker wins, they can eliminate the Purple Tigers that just beat them. The Ozzi system has burned up more calculators than the IRS, and will drive everyone crazy here if Baker wins by various amounts. 

 

Ontario Tigers (6-2, 2-0) @ Baker Bulldogs (5-3, 1-1). 4A & GOL game of the week. Baker has attitude, and the home advantage, which has again proven very significant on the east side.  Ontario came out of their bye week red hot, with 2 big wins. Common opponents suggest several things, not the least of which is that Vale should probably get the playoff berth at stake. Burns and LG are both teams that the Tigers beat, and the Bulldogs couldn’t. 

  

Another pro-Tiger indication is that all 5 of the ratings Oregonprepsports tracks have the Tigers significantly higher than the Dogs. And when there is agreement and significant difference, that’s usually a very reliable indicator. But the Bulldogs have been much better at home, and that’s key. If this one was in O-town, Tigers would be a clear pick. But in Baker, all bets always off. No outcome of this one can be considered a big surprise. But the big difference in the rating formulas are too big to ignore. Coupled with Baker’s tendency in several big games this year to make some mistakes, it points to a great game, but also a GOL title for the Tigers, a reprieve for the other Tigers, and a rare year off from the playoffs for the Bulldogs. 

 

LaGrande Tigers (6-2, 1-1) @ McLoughlin Pioneers (2-6, 0-2). Tigers need this one, and the Pioneers will not be any impediment. LG wraps it up early, and gets on-line to check their fate. 

 

“Sky-Em Skirmishes”  

 

The Outlaws won the championship with a close win over the Lions. The Lions slowed down the top offense and the top RB in 4A. However, Cory McCaffrey still scored the TD that proved to be the winning TD. And the Outlaw defense, #6 despite numerous games closed out by reserves, shut down the Lions. And the Outlaw passing game produced the points that put the game away. 

 

The Spartans locked up second place with a big win over the Falcons, who’s defense has produced a lot of big games this year. For the opponents. 

 

The Tigers stepped out of the conference, and stepped on the Sweet Home Huskies. JC has found their offense in October. Looking back, it may have happened 1 week late, after CG got away from them. 

 

Finally, the Hawks flew away from the Billies, and (how many had this pick in the preseason?) stayed in the playoff hunt to the last week! 

 

LaPine Hawks (2-7, 2-3) @ Cottage Grove Lions (5-4, 3-2). Sky-Em game of the week, because it is a playoff game. Lions get the third playoff berth with a win. Hawks are third with a win and help from their feathered friends in their rivalry game with the Tigers. A 3 way tie is also possible. But not really. The Hawks best ball has all been at home, and when they fly away from the nest, it hasn’t gone well at all. The Lions have played a lot of big games all year, and done pretty well in them. This is just another one, and the Lions will use it to get, guess what, the opportunity to play in still another big one. 

 

Sisters Outlaws (9-0, 5-0) @ Pleasant Hill Billies (2-6, 1-4). The Outlaws have this one and then a week off to get ready for a Skyline team. They will use it as a tune up game, as many of the Billies’ opponents have this year. 

 

Junction City Tigers (3-5, 2-3) @ Elmira Falcons (1-8, 0-5). The only games the Falcons have been in have been against 3A teams. The Tigers weren’t at that level when they were losing, much less now. Whether they get a share of third or not, the Tigers will close the season with a 4 game run. 

 

Again this week the ValCo and the Sky-Em hook up for a non-conference game, and an interesting one it is, featuring the ValCo Champion Cubs and the playoff bound Spartans in an opportunity for both teams to get ready for the post season against a quality opponent. Newport Cubs (6-2, 4-0) @ Marist Spartans (7-2, 5-1). The Cubs mauled Taft, and the Spartans destroyed Elmira, in games they didn’t need. 

 

This is another tune up, and the best barometer of how far the Cubs have really come. And if the Cub defense is as good as their numbers, also a good barometer of the true strength of the Spartans. Marist is used to the limelight, not sharing it. Brandon Jackson is a better back than the Cubs have seen, and he will show it. Spartans win, and the Cubs find out what they still need, which is balance; the Cubs have defense and a running game, but not as much of the offensive punch the playoffs will eventually require as the Spartans. 

 

See the Capital Weekly review for details on the tune up games and the games to decide the third team to go to the playoffs. 

 

CC

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