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MWL/SWC Blog
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Written by DRH
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Tuesday, 18 November 2008 19:48 Hits: 281 |
I don't have anything funny to say here, so I'll just quote The Simpsons: "It's not easy to juggle a pregnant wife and a troubled child, but somehow I managed to fit in eight hours of TV a day." Ah, Homer.
MWL
#3 Sherwood Bowmen (10-1) @ #2 Thurston Colts (10-0)
How We Got Here: Thurston captured the MWL #1 seed by coasting to an undefeated league season. After a 1st round bye, they beat visiting Klamath Union 58-40 in the 2nd round. The offense was clicking as per usual, but the defense struggle to contain a series of KU fly sweeps. Sherwood went 6-0 in the NWOC, securing the NWOC #1 seed and a 1st round bye. They hosted, and beat, South Albany 56-8 in the 2nd round.
The Game: I’m not a fan of the common opponent factor, as it is a truly meaningless statistic. But in the interest of taking up space, Thurston and Sherwood shared two opponents in 2008: Springfield and South Albany. Thurston beat Springfield 41-0 at Springfield, Sherwood beat Springfield 10-7 at home. Thurston beat South Albany 47-12 on the road, Sherwood beat South Albany 56-8 at home.
This is almost football’s equivalent of last season’s basketball quarterfinals, when #1 North Eugene met #2 Jefferson in what could/should have been a state championship showdown. One team is going to move on, but the other – one who is capable of winning it all – is going to end their season two rounds before playing for it all. A shame, perhaps, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Both teams boast balanced offenses, Sherwood leaning more on the run, Thurston commanding the best passing offense in the state. But Sherwood can still keep opposing defenses honest with the pass, and Thurston’s 1-2 rushing punch of RB Devan Anderson and QB Tym Pearson was easily the MWL’s best. I’m giving Thurston the advantage on offense; as dangerous as Sherwood is with the ball, it’s much more difficult at this level to prepare for a dominant passing game, which Thurston has exploited all season. An elite quarterback in high school is like an above-average 6-9 high school center in basketball. They’re really tough for opponent’s to stop – defenses aren’t built too.
That said, advantage: Sherwood on defense. The Bowmen have arguably 5A’s best defense (I wouldn’t argue with you if you said West Albany), whereas Thurston’s once-stout defense has shown some holes in their last two games versus Marshfield and Klamath Union. Both Marshfield and KU tacked on some late touchdown’s against Thurston’s back-up defenders late in the 4th quarter, but even without those scores, 20 points to Marshfield and 34 to KU (points the varsity gave up) are more points than Thurston is used to giving up this season. Sherwood hasn’t given up more than 14 points once this season, and that includes games against #1 West Albany and #4 Century. The Bowmen are very special defensively. Can they match up with Thurston’s aerial assault, which Sherwood really hasn’t seen yet this season? That remains to be seen. But Sherwood does have a pair of 1st team NWOC cornerbacks that are certainly up to trying.
I’m taking Thurston. I have nothing but the upmost respect for Sherwood, and I think they are extremely capable of winning this game – in fact, I would argue that they are the favorites in the eyes of most fans across the state. But on the Farm, with the Tym Pearson factor… I’ll take the Colts. He’s the best player in 5A, perhaps the state, and I think special players rise to the occasion. I also think defensive coordinator Bill Smith is going to have his defense ready to play.
Thurston 27, Sherwood 24
Last Week: 2-1
Season Total: 39-9
SWC
#9 Sheldon Irish (7-4) @ #1 Lake Oswego Lakers (10-0)
How We Got Here: Sheldon’s “Second Season” – the postseason – has helped erase a disappointing regular season, which saw Sheldon lose 4 games before the playoffs for the first time since 1997 – and the first time they didn’t end the season with a league championship since 2000. Sheldon won a 1st round playoff game at Tigard, then won a 2nd round home game against Westview on a blocked field goal. Lake Oswego went undefeated in the regular season, including a 6-0 mark in the Three Rivers League. The Lakers beat Grant 41-7 in the 2nd round of the playoffs, after a 1st round bye.
The Game: I fear it’s the end of the line for the Irish. Sheldon beat Lake Oswego last year in a postseason instant classic (via a blocked extra point), but LO has run the table this year and are strong in virtually every aspect of the game. They beat #3 Jesuit in a nationally televised thriller in Week 2, and only allowed more than 20 points one other time all season. Sheldon is facing it’s toughest season in quite some time, and isn’t as dominant as they once were. QB Jordan Johnson is still one of 6A’s best, but LO’s QB Jack Lomax is, too. On the road… against the state’s #1 team… sorry, Irish. I just don’t see it. The defending champs hand their trophy off to somebody else this year.
Lake Oswego 38, Sheldon 24
#7 Southridge Skyhawks (9-2) @ #2 South Medford Panthers (10-1)
How We Got Here: South Medford rolled to an undefeated SWC season, prying the league championship away from Sheldon for the first time. The Panthers lost only to a team from Northern California, taking on a challenging non-league schedule in addition to the rough and tumble SWC and coming through almost perfect. They received a 1st round bye for defeating David Douglas 42-20 in the 2nd round. Southridge lost two games, both by a field goal – both to Top 10 teams as they finished with the #3 seed in the Metro. They defeated Oregon City 48-9 in the 1st round, and Lincoln 45-7 in the 2nd – both on the road. Southridge defeated Sheldon 20-17 in Eugene in Week 3.
The Game: Am I really picking against both remaining SWC teams in the quarterfinals? Unfortunately, I am. I’ve been high on Southridge all year, and now that Mitch Mathews is healthy, I think Southridge is going to get all the way to the 6A state championship game, where they will either try their luck against Jesuit again, or face off against Lake Oswego. The skill position talent in this game is going to be sick, but Southridge has perhaps the fastest defense in the state, and they love to hit. I’m not sure South Medford has experienced a defense quite like this yet. South Medford’s receivers are excellent, but will they have success against a physical secondary? I think this is the end of my SWC predictions for the season, but I really hope I’m wrong.
Southridge 34, South Medford 32
Last Week: 3-0
Season Total: 38-7
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MWL/SWC Blog 
