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MWL/SWC Blog
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Written by DRH
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Sunday, November 30, 2008 05:40pm Hits: 383 |
Here now is my attempt to forecast the 2008-09 MWL season. Coming off the second straight season in which two MWL schools won trophies at state (top 6 finishes), the '08-09 season is filled with more question marks than usual, but it should be an exciting year both in the league, and statewide. I've compiled my predicted order of finish, my preseason All-MWL team, and a guide to the top non-league showdowns.
1. Churchill Lancers
2007-08: 14-13 overall, 9-6 MWL (3rd place). Beat Hillsboro 61-56 in the 1st round of the 5A state playoffs, lost to Corvallis 70-53 in the 2nd.
Key Losses: 6-5 F Blake Harrison (1st Team MWL).
Key Returning: 5-10 PG Jordan Myers, 6-6 P Brendan Means, 6-6 P Joe Gunderson.
2008-09 Outlook: Churchill is by far the MWL’s most talented team. They’re senior heavy, they have the league’s best PG in Myers, they have a pair of large posts to man the paint, and they’re long on athleticism, lead by LeRon Bennett, a 6-3 forward transfer from Willamette.
Myers is an excellent distributor and scorer, and is probably the MWL’s top playmaker with the ball in his hands. He’s tough to keep in front of you, and spreads the wealth around. From a coaching perspective, there’s nobody else you’d rather have in control of this team, as there’s certainly plenty of capable athletes, and only one ball. Be patient, Lancer ballers. You’ll get yours if you run the floor and play within the system. Means transferred from Sheldon last season, and made a decent splash in his first year of 5A. I look for better overall production this year, and improved consistency. With the graduation of some talented seniors around the league, Means is probably one of the top two posts in the MWL. If he brings his “A” game most nights, he won’t be stopped often. Gunderson should benefit from defenses focusing on Means; he’s a capable low post scorer who should get plenty of good opportunities to punish teams for doubling Means.
Bennett was Willamette’s top scorer last year, and transferred to Churchill for his senior year. He’s probably the MWL’s best slashing forward, using superior athleticism and speed to beat defenders off the dribble. He’s no stranger to the free throw line. On a team I had already picked to win the league before word of his transfer broke, Bennett has the opportunity to be a killer third option. He almost always faced the top defender on opposing teams last year at Will-Hi, but on the same floor as Myers and Means, teams are going to have to pick their poison when playing Churchill, and Bennett should be able to make teams pay for picking incorrectly.
Are there concerns? Sure. Churchill is never short on talent, but they haven’t won a league title since 2001. Talented Lancer teams have failed to get it done in the past. Is there, perhaps, such a thing as too much talent? On a team with three legitimate 1st Team MWL players, and a strong supporting cast, is one ball going to be enough? You’d like to think so with a guy like Myers running the show, but you never know.
Bottom Line: A brand new coach creates a certain aura of the unknown, but here’s thinking Churchill gets it done and takes the MWL. Nobody can match the Lancer’s talent, and it would take quite the implosion for Churchill to not raise another banner in the Lancer Dome at season’s end.
2. North Eugene Highlanders
2007-08: 25-4 overall, 15-0 MWL (1st place). Beat Crook County 89-41 in the 2nd round of the 5A state playoffs, lost to Jefferson 53-51 in the quarterfinals. Beat Mountain View 62-34 in the consolation semifinal, lost to Hermiston 49-44 in the 4th/6th place game.
Key Losses: 6-8 F Brian Conklin (MWL Co-MVP), 5-10 PG Markus Baker (MWL Co-MVP), 6-0 G Drew Laird.
Key Returning: 6-10 P Joe Kammerer, 6-2 G Tyler Vanderhoff.
2008-09 Outlook: Wow, that’s a lot of talent to replace, isn’t? Sure is. But luckily for North Eugene, the cupboard isn’t completed bare.
NE loses MWL co-MVPs Conklin and Baker, but they return a pair of seniors that shouldn’t lend to too much of a drop-off. Kammerer is the league’s tallest player, and has put together a solid summer of basketball in preparation of taking over Conklin’s role of go-to post player. He’s already signed a letter of intent to play for the University of Idaho. It remains to be seen if he can bare the load all by himself, but he’ll certainly get his touches down low, and there aren’t many teams that can match his size and strength. Vanderhoff can play all three perimeter spots, but North Eugene’s 2007 program listed him as a reserve PG, and I’m not so sure that’s a bad place to put him. He’s very athletic and is North’s best returning weapon with the ball in his hands. He’s also a proven off-the-ball scorer, and playing elsewhere on the wing could free up a starting gig for senior PG Malakai Maita (5-10), a talented ball handler who’s been stuck behind Baker in season’s past. It’ll certainly be an interesting choice for NE’s new coach to make. Whoever makes the offense flow better, I suppose. Senior Kenny Dent (6-3) and junior Isaac Pleskow (6-6) will try to take some heat off of Kammerer down low.
Bottom Line: This team is on a 30 game MWL winning streak, and they won’t have forgotten how to win, even if the bulk of their championship teams has graduated. A mix of veteran leadership, and some talented newcomers, equals out to yet another Highlander team capable of reaching Mac Court. Whether they reach that goal depends on whether or not Kammerer becomes a dominant force in the paint, and whether or not someone else on the perimeter aside from Vanderhoff emerges as an every night threat.
3. Thurston Colts
2007-08: 22-7 overall, 11-4 MWL (2nd place). Beat Madison 53-50 in the 2nd round of the 5A state playoffs, beat Century 62-49 in the quarterfinals. Lost to Corvallis 46-39 in the semifinals, beat Sherwood 66-42 in the 3rd/5th place game.
Key Losses: 6-7 F Drew Wiley (1st Team MWL), 6-4 G Michael Akins (1st Team MWL), 5-11 G Tim Autele, 6-0 G Joey White.
Key Returning: 6-4 F Maddie Boehm, 6-2 G Calvin Green.
2008-09 Outlook: Like North, Thurston loses a ton of talent from last season, but also like North, they have a decent recipe to recapture instant success; a strong mix of seniors and an influx of talented youth from the JV ranks has Thurston thinking playoffs for the third straight year.
The Colts will build around Boehm, an inside-outside threat who often deferred to Thurston’s strong senior class last season, and Green, a deadly outside shooter who played the role of 6th man for the team last year. Both present match-up problems Thurston coach Doug Piquette would like to exploit; Green can stretch defenses far outside, and Boehm is too tall for most guards to defend, but too quick for most posts. Senior PG Payton McCalligan (5-8) should slide into the starting unit, already with two years of varsity service under his belt and, like Green, is superb from downtown. For being only 5-8, McCalligan is also surprisingly fearless in getting to the hoop.
It’s tough to figure out what route Thurston will go outside those three. Senior G Michael Rondeau is another shooter (sensing a theme?) but senior Ryan Daugherty is taller (6-3) and can score off the dribble. Senior Kevin Keebler (6-5) is, you guessed it, a good shooter for his position who can draw big men out of the paint to cover him. The wildcard could be 6-4 junior F Edward Avent-Woodfork. He might be the most athletic player in the MWL, and he really came on at the end of the JV season last year. He looks like he could play just about anywhere.
Bottom Line: Thurston lost a ton, but they have the pieces to come right back and compete. With so many new starters (four) I wouldn’t expect game-to-game consistency, especially early, but this team has a chance to hit it’s stride come MWL season and if they’re hot – everybody can shoot the rock -- I think they could beat just about anybody in the state. Piquette will have them playing their usual stout defense, that much is certain, and a difficult, 6A-heavy non-league schedule should have them ready to go.
4. Springfield Millers
2007-08: 9-15 overall, 4-11 MWL (4th place).
Key Losses: 6-0 F Cody Pryce (1st Team MWL).
Key Returning: 6-5 F Robbie Church, 5-7 PG Mike Travess.
2008-09 Outlook: The Millers lose one highly productive forward in Pryce, but return another with Church. He’s an inside-outside match-up nightmare capable of going off for big points. Travess is a jitterbug who is also capable of putting his team on his back for a night.
Outside of those two, however, Springfield will be searching for answers at almost every other position. 6-2 senior C Marshall Curry is probably Springfield’s most accomplished inside scorer, but he doesn’t have great height and doesn’t match up well with other posts around the league. 6-5 senior F Casey Michael is a wildcard; improvement from Michael could alter my perception of this team quite a bit, giving the Miller’s a solid inside option and taking some of the load off of Church and Travess.
Bottom Line: Right now, this looks like a two man team, and I just don’t think that’s the key to success in this league. Playing at home in front of the Miller Mob is never, ever fun for opponents, but I don’t see Springfield picking up many road wins, and the better teams in this league should be able to overcome Springfield’s nice homecourt advantage. There’s potential here, however. If they can overcome Pryce’s absence with a third scorer, and beat Marshfield and Willamette on the road, the Millers could compete for the final playoff birth late into the season. Despite’s Thurston three game sweep of Springfield last year, Springfield almost always plays the Colts better than anyone else (a rivalry will do that to you), and two home games against the Colts could mean a couple more wins.
5. Willamette Wolverines
2007-08: 6-19 overall, 2-13 MWL (6th place).
Key Losses: 6-9 P Michael Seiler.
Key Returning: 6-2 G Spencer Phillips, 6-9 P Matt Dodson.
2008-09 Outlook: Willamette loses their top individual scorer in LeRon Bennett, and top inside presence in Seiler, but Willamette will try to get out of the basement this year on the back of the sweet shooting Phillips, and the post play of Dodson.
If there’s one thing Willamette has, it’s height. 6-6 senior Nate Gepford will look to make a bigger splash on varsity this year, joining Dodson in the paint to make one of the MWL’s tallest front lines. Neither is as offensively gifted as some of the other 6-6 and over players in this league, but hard-nosed defensive efforts out of the duo would make for big teams improvements. Phillips can stroke it from deep, which might be able to break up zones aimed at containing the height advantage Will-Hi will have over most teams.
Bottom Line: Losing Bennett won’t improve the talent level, but it might create a better team atmosphere. That’s not a knock Bennett in any way, but rather a sign that Willamette will need to recognize that if they’re going to win this year, it will take a team-wide commitment to defense. A change in philosophies, if you will, brought about by his departure.
6. Marshfield Pirates
2007-08: 9-15 overall, 4-11 MWL (4th place).
Key Losses: 6-5 F Brogan Oswald.
Key Returning: 6-1 junior PG Kyle Tedder.
2008-09 Outlook: The Pirates were kind of a mess last year, playing a lot like the Oregon Ducks when they aren’t focused: no perimeter shot was a bad one, even though most of them were. A fresh face roaming the sidelines and some new bodies in the program might not be a bad thing.
Tedder returns to man the point. He was probably the MWL’s top sophomore last year, capable of breaking down defenses and pulling up for an easy jumper. He’s a great piece to build around. He’ll have the ball in his hands the majority of the time; the only real question is whether or not he’ll give it up much.
Oswald was what made Marshfield click last season when they were on, and his departure will hurt inside. His younger brother, Andrew, a 6-5 senior, will be one of those trying to replace his production. 6-3 wing Jordan Shephard is expected to play a big role, as he’s about the only returning Pirates outside of Tedder who can create his own shot.
Bottom Line: I'm not sold on Marshfield's ability as a basketball team, but I'm also not exactly sold on the Pirates finishing last. Why? They host both Springfield and Willamette twice. Winning league games on the road is very difficult, and winning in Coos Bay is never a treat after such a long bus ride. If Marshfield can hold serve at home, they can easily finish 4th.
Preseason 1st Team MWL
The MWL now awards seven spots on the 1st Team, so I’ll follow suit. Here’s mine (in alphabetical order)
F Maddie Boehm, Thurston
F Robbie Church, Springfield
P Joe Kammerer, North Eugene
P Brendan Means, Churchill
G Jordan Myers, Churchill
G Kyle Tedder, Marshfield
G Tyler Vanderhoff, North Eugene
Preseason Awards
MVP: PG Jordan Myers, Churchill. The best player on the best team? Perhaps. But I think he’s also the best player in the league regardless. Joe Kammerer should make a strong push, but Myers is my pick.
Coach of the Year: Doug Piquette, Thurston. This award almost never goes to the 3rd place team, as I’ve predicted the Colts to finish, but in my opinion Churchill is too talented not to win the league, and North Eugene returns more; Thurston lost more than anybody to graduation, and to return to the postseason would be a major accomplishment.
Top 10 Non-League Games
These aren’t in order of awesomeness, but rather by date in which they take place. I took the liberty of picking ten different games on ten different nights, in order to not cause panic amongst you hoopaholics.
12/2 Marist @ Springfield. Last year’s 4A state champion comes to Springfield to play in front of the Miller Mob, the best homecourt crowd in the MWL.
12/3 North Eugene @ South Eugene. These ancient rivals square off once again, and of course now that they aren’t in the same league, this is the one and only time they’ll meet in 2008-09. NE has butchered SE the last two years, but this will be the Highlander’s first game post-Conklin, Baker, and Laird – and the Axemen have revenge on the mind.
12/5 Roseburg @ Willamette. The Wolverine’s strive for legitimacy might be made or broken with this game. Roseburg should be better than they were a year ago, but the Wolverines will be looking to make a statement at home.
12/6 Churchill @ Mountain View. Tough road game over in Bend for the Lancers against one of 5A’s better hoops programs. Should be a heckuva showdown; both teams will be ranked in the state’s top 10.
12/9 Churchill @ Sheldon. The Lancers come back to Eugene three days later, but they’re again on the road against rival Sheldon. Another in a string of great non-league games Churchill has set up for themselves in order to prep for a run at the 5A state title.
12/10 South Medford @ North Eugene. Both Joe Kammerer and South’s EJ Singler have signed letters of intent to play at the D-1A level, and they’ll be going to head-to-head here.
12/12 Parkrose @ Springfield. Parkrose is a solid program out of the NWOC, and should pose a quality test for the Millers at home. The Broncos are expected to be a playoff team; can Springfield win a little pride for the MWL?
12/13 Churchill @ Jefferson. Jefferson should be the preseason #1, Churchill the preseason #2. If both teams haven’t suffered losses to this point, they’ll stay that way in the rankings. What’s not to love about this? This game will probably be replayed at Mac Court in March.
12/16 South Eugene @ Thurston. Thurston and SE played an instant-classic last year in Eugene, and while both schools will feature some new faces, these old league rivals should make for another great game.
12/19 Thurston @ Sheldon. Thurston’s loaded up on 6A teams this year to prepare for the league schedule, and this is the second road game at a SWC school. Both teams know each other well. It’s good to see this game back on the schedule, after taking a year off last year.
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