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MWL/SWC Blog
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Written by DRH
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Sunday, 31 May 2009 13:07 Hits: 422 |
5A has its Final Four, and here are my breakdowns and predictions.
#1 Thurston Colts (21-7) @ The Dalles-Wahtonka Eagle Indians (18-11)
How We Got Here: Thurston won the MWL going away, posting a 13-2 league record and securing the #1 seed with a few weeks remaining in the regular season. The Colts beat Pendleton, the IMC #3 seed, 15-5 in the 2nd round, and West Albany, the MWC champion, 4-3 in the quarterfinals. TDW finished in a three-way tie for 2nd place in the IMC, and secured the #2 seed due to winning a tiebreaker. They beat Madison, the PIL #2 seed, 4-3 at Madison, and then beat Glencoe, the NWOC champion, 14-13 in walk-off fashion.
Key Wins: Thurston -- #2 West Albany (twice), #4 Pendleton, #7 North Eugene (thrice), #7 St. Helens, Churchill (twice), 6A South Eugene. TDW -- #9 Glencoe, Sherwood, Madras (twice), #4 Pendleton (twice), Madison.
Record vs. 5A: Thurston – 17-2. TDW – 18-8
Thurston Road Record: 7-4.
TDW Home Record: 9-7.
Thurston vs. the IMC: 1-0. Thurston beat Pendleton 15-5 in the 2nd round, at home.
TDW vs. the MWL: No meetings.
The Game: As I mentioned last time in the Quarterfinals blog, Thurston coach Phil Dube started last year’s ace, Darrell Hunter, in all four postseason games. This year’s ace, Chris Reed, has started both playoff games, and has pitched in 12 of the possible 14 innings. But will we see him Tuesday against TDW? Hunter didn’t pitch in all 7 innings of any playoff game in ’08 until the championship. Reed went all 7 against WA. And while last year Hunter was head and shoulders above the rest of the staff, this year Thurston has Skip Spencer and Brooks Chapman available, who both posted dynamite records and ERAs. Will we see one of them start in the Dalles?
Junior Duncan Wilcox, a 2nd team IMC pitcher, started his second straight playoff game as well for TDW, after pitching 4 innings against Madison in the 2nd round. He didn’t go the distance against Glencoe, but we’ll have to wait and see who gets the nod on Tuesday.
Both offenses are explosive and capable of putting up big run totals. TDW went over 10 runs 8 times this season, Thurston 10 times. Both have put up games of 14 runs or more in the playoffs.
My pick: Thurston.
#5 Corvallis Spartans (25-4) @ #2 Ashland Grizzlies (23-4)
How We Got Here: Corvallis finished 2nd in the MWC behind West Albany, going 18-3 and securing the #2 seed. They took to the road and beat St. Helens, the NWOC #2 seed, in the 2nd round, and hosted and beat Bend, the IMC #1, 10-2 in the quarters. Ashland won the SSC, going 15-1. They beat Crescent Valley, the MWC #3, 4-0 in the 2nd round, then tripped to North Eugene, where they beat the MWL #2 5-1.
Key Wins: Corvallis -- #2 West Albany, #6 Bend, #7 St. Helens, #9 Glencoe, South Albany (thrice), Crescent Valley (twice), 6A McNary, 6A Grant. Ashland – #7 North Eugene, Crater (thrice), Crescent Valley, 6A South Medford (twice), 6A Grants Pass.
Record vs. 5A: Corvallis – 23-4. Ashland – 19-1.
Corvallis Road Record: 12-2.
Ashland Home Record: 10-0.
Corvallis vs. the SSC: No meetings.
Ashland vs. the MWC: 1-0. Ashland beat Crescent Valley 4-0 in the 2nd round.
The Game: It’s going to be great. These are two of the top teams in 5A, and they’re going to hammer it out for the right to play for a championship.
Corvallis ace Aaron Corwin only pitched three innings against Bend, as he was on a strict pitch count after pitching in the previous round against St. Helens. That means he should be good to go against Ashland. Senior Ben Northcutt, normally a late game specialist, came in and pitched four innings of no hit, no walk baseball in relief. He should be good to resume his role of closer for the Spartans.
Ashland ace Garrett Tygerson went the distance Friday against North Eugene, a complete game 5 hitter. His availability probably won’t be determined until Tuesday, but it’s tough to imagine him pitching more than a couple of innings. His bat should be in the line-up, however, regardless of how much he pitches. He hit a towering shot at Swede Johnson to help his own cause. Ian Kendall, who shut down Crescent Valley in the 2nd round through five and a third, will likely get the nod. Like Tygerson, Kendall is also dangerous at the plate; he hit a 3 run HR in the 1st inning of the CV game to give himself a lead he never gave up.
Both teams can hit the ball as well as any team in the state – both have 14 double-digit run games this year. Both will absolutely abuse bad pitching – Ashland has games of 33 and 19 runs, and Corvallis has games of 29, 27, 23 (four times!), and 19 runs. Not that either pitching staff will give up that many runs on Tuesday, but any mistake pitches run the risk of leaving the park in an instant.
My pick: Ashland.
If I’m right (and I still haven’t missed a pick in the postseason!), we’re looking at a rematch of last season’s 5A final, Thurston vs. Ashland. Best of luck to all teams.
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