|
Blogs -
MWL/SWC Blog
|
|
Written by DRH
|
|
Wednesday, 24 June 2009 17:29 Hits: 377 |
Take a quick peek at the upcoming 2009 MWL non-league schedules.
Churchill Lancers (Last Year: 8-4)
9/4 Churchill @ Sheldon (7-5). Sheldon won 50-7 last year at Churchill High School. The two previous meetings (2006, 2007) were closer affairs – 28-14 and 21-0 Sheldon wins, respectively – but the Irish were in total command last year. An early Chas Rogers touchdown scamper accounted for all of C-Hill’s points. Sheldon hasn’t lost to a MWL school since Churchill beat them 30-13 in 2000.
9/11 Summit (4-6) @ Churchill. Churchill won 35-21 last year at Summit, in front of a racious crowd that Summit officials claimed was the largest attendance draw in the school’s 8 year existence. The score was tied 21 all in the 4th quarter before WR/DB Blake Determan scored a pair of touchdowns (reception, interception return).
9/18 Churchill @ Dallas (2-8). Churchill won 49-14 at home last year. The Lancers jumped all over the Dragons, who had been to the postseason in back-to-back years but failed to get things off the ground in ’08.
9/25 Mazama (4-6) @ Churchill. Churchill won 34-14 last year at Mazama. The Vikings were 3-0 heading into the game, but the Lancers provided the first of 6 straight losses for Mazama, who didn’t win again until the season finale against Madras.
10/2 Churchill @ Eagle Point (3-7). Churchill won 34-20 at home last year. EP beat up on Madison, the PIL champion, to highlight ’08, but failed to play competitively against most of their upper-echelon opponents.
Prognosis: Sheldon’s going to be a task, but I certainly think Churchill can climb to 4-1 heading into MWL play, same as 2008. Sheldon’s run off eight straight wins over their cross-town rival, but the Lancer D should put Churchill in position to win the rest. Last year C-Hill was dependant on the QB Eric Knapp to WR Blake Determan connection, but with both players gone the offense will be under a microscope. Still, the non-league is not a murderer’s row, and Churchill should be able to out-athlete all but Sheldon.
Marshfield Pirates (5-6)
9/4 North Bend (9-3) @ Marshfield. Marshfield won last year’s edition of the coastal rivalry 31-9 at NB – it was Marshfield’s 19th straight win over the Bulldogs. New head coach Justin Ainsworth will be coaching his first game.
9/11 Marist (9-3) @ Marshfield. Marshfield lost last year’s meeting 27-25 at Marist High School. They also lost a 26-20 affair in 2007, at Marshfield. The Pirates should have one of the state’s better aerial attacks with QB Kyle Tedder, but Marist should be able to match them yard for yard in the air.
9/18 Marshfield @ Ashland (7-3). Marshfield won 33-28 last year, avenging a 13-12 loss down at Ashland in 2007. Last year, the Grizz finished in a three-way tie for the SSC title, but lost out on a playoff berth due to tiebreakers. The Pirates led by 21 at one point last year, but Ashland whittled the lead down to 5 with 3 minutes to play before Tedder converted a key third and long situation which enabled Marshfield to run out the clock. Tedder did most of his damage on the ground last year – 188 yards rushing and two scores.
9/25 Marshfield @ Grants Pass (9-2). GP cruised by Marshfield 35-0 in Coos Bay last year (they also beat the Pirates 34-2 in ’07, and 24-14 in ’06 – Marshfield last registered a win in the series back in 2001, a 14-7 2nd round playoff victory). GP was one of the better schools in 6A last year, but had the unfortunate luck of running into Jesuit in the 2nd round of the playoffs. They return a strong core, especially on defense.
10/2 Marshfield @ Jefferson. Jefferson beat Marshfield twice last year – 43-27 in Coos Bay in the regular season, and 22-18 in a 2nd round playoff game at Jeff. Marshfield led 18-14 in the 4th quarter of the playoff game and had the ball on the Jeff 2 yard line at one point, but penalties pushed them back and they ended up turning the ball over, which the Democrats eventually capitalized on for the winning touchdown drive. Jefferson loses all-world RB Marlon Miles.
Prognosis. A very difficult schedule for Coach Ainsworth’s first go-round. I like their odds for starting 2-0 – they’re going for 20 in a row against NB, and I think they’re due against Marist – but things get dicey after that. Ashland is a difficult road trip to make, but the game is certainly winnable for the Pirates. Grants Pass might be a little out of their league, but you have to figure they want to beat Jefferson in the worst way possible. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a split against Ashland/Jeff. 3-2 would be a solid spring board for Marshfield going into league play, but 4-1 is certainly possible if things click and the ball bounces their way once or twice.
North Eugene Highlanders (1-9)
9/11 NE @ Crook County (3-6). NE lost to Crook County 14-7 in Eugene last year, on a 4 yard 4th quarter TD run by CC’s Rodney Leasy. NE QB Tim Keller came on late last year, but the Highlanders are back to square one upon his graduation. Will star RB Michael Bibbee again be North’s lone source of offense?
9/18 North Bend (9-3) @ NE. NE lost to their old league rivals 35-14 off the coast last year. NB reached the 4A quarterfinals before bowing out to eventual champion Astoria. They ran NE off the field with their triple option, which the Highlanders never figured out.
10/2 Madison (6-5) @ NE. NE lost to the PIL champions 38-19 up in Portland last year. The Senators were up 26-0 at halftime and were never threatened.
10/9 NE @ Parkrose (2-7). NE beat Parkrose 35-14 last year, providing the Highlanders their first (and only) win of the ’08 season, and snapping a 10 game losing streak dating back to 2007.
Prognosis: The schedule isn’t overly strong, so the potential for a fast start – like 2006 and 2007, when they started 3-1 – is there. Then again, I thought the same thing last year, and NE was 1-4 heading into MWL play. With a legitimate All State talent in Bibbee, and some strong talent in the underclasses, North might have enough for 3-1. How NE fares in the trenches will determine just how successful they can be.
Springfield Millers (6-4)
9/4 Dallas (2-8) @ Springfield. Springfield beat Dallas 42-14 in Dallas last year. Dallas went to the playoffs in 2006 and 2007, including a quarterfinals appearance in 2006. But they struggled mightily in ’08, and my guess is that they won’t be postseason-caliber this season. That said, Springfield is in supreme rebuilding mode: of the 15 All MWL selections Miller players filled in ’08, all graduated. This is an important game for Springfield, because the rest of the schedule is brutal.
9/11 Springfield @ Silverton (7-5). Springfield held onto a 35-28 victory at home last year, fending off a furious Silverton rally. Silverton is a program on the rise, going for their third straight playoff berth – their longest streak since they went 7 straight years in the early/mid 1990s, which included a 3A state championship in ’91 (they jumped to 4A in 1994). With the program on the upturn – and a great homefield advantage – Springfield will have their hands full.
9/18 Marist @ Springfield. Remember this one? Springfield won 34-33 in OT, when Marist opted to go for 2 instead of kicking the extra point. Heck of a finish, and heck of a game. Marist will be gunning for another 4A state title, and they have the talent to pull it off. And they’re certainly not afraid of MWL teams.
10/2 Springfield @ Ashland. After SHS ran out of the gates to 4-0, Ashland handed the Millers their first loss of ’08, a 20-17 home defeat. Tripping down to Ashland can be a bear – they’re 13-2 at home since reclassification, one loss coming by a touchdown in ’06 to eventual state champion Corvallis, the other coming last year to our very own Willamette.
10/9 Sherwood @ Springfield. Springfield showed their mettle last year up at Sherwood, losing 10-7 on a late field goal against one of the top teams in 5A (they were #3 for me, after West Albany and Thurston). Sherwood is my favorite to win it all this year – Springfield’s going to need another brilliant defensive effort to keep up with ‘Wood’s size and speed.
Prognosis: It’s a very tough schedule. Every opponent save for Dallas should be playoff-bound. I’ve targeted Sherwood and Marist to win state titles. Ashland is the two-time defending champion of the SSC (and might win it again). I wish them the very best, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if Springfield would come out of this non-league schedule 2-3. As said, Springfield is in rebuilding mode after losing the bulk of last year’s phenomenal senior class.
Thurston Colts (12-1)
9/4 Thurston @ Corvallis (6-5). Thurston won 60-13 at Thurston High School last year. Corvallis went on to rebound by finishing 2nd in the MWC, and return a solid core of skill position players in ’09 – senior QB Ross Orman, junior RB Dominic Wooten, and sophomore WR Blair Cavanaugh. Both teams are in my preseason Top 5. I think Thurston is more talented, but you have to figure that Corvallis remembers last year’s drubbing all too well.
9/11 South Albany @ Thurston. Thurston won 47-12 last year at South Albany. The Colts led 47-0 early in the 4th quarter before the dogs were called off. South Albany would go on to finish 3rd in the MWC, claiming a postseason berth, and even won a game. SA runs a unique run-based offensive scheme, but last year Thurston’s speed was just too much.
9/18 Thurston @ North Salem (0-10). Thurston won 50-7 last year at Thurston, their first-ever win over a 6A school (post reclassification). Granted, the Vikings went winless in ’08. Thurston’s JV beat North’s JV 42-12 last year; while JV scores can sometimes be hollow stats, I do think it shows that the Vikes don’t have a lot of help coming up through the system to help a varsity defense that never gave up fewer than 40 points in a game in ’08.
9/25 South Eugene (0-9) @ Thurston. Thurston won 49-35 last year at South, in their closest regular season outing. The game was tied at 35 all early in the 4th quarter before the Colts closed things out. The Colt secondary never quite figured out departed QB Dustin Haines, but by the same token the Axemen defense didn’t put up much resistence to Thurston’s offense. How will South not being able to field a JV team in ’08 effect 2009?
Prognosis: Corvallis and SE should both be better in ’09 than they were last year, so the schedule offers some stiffer challenges. Corvallis should be hyper-motivated and has the offensive talent to make noise at the state level. The opener is probably the Colt’s biggest trap of the non-league season – if they get by it, there’s almost no way they won’t be 3-0 heading into the SE game. And I think they have the defense to win it, even if the game will be on the road. Thurston’s front 7 should be among the best in the state, thus able to keep the Spartans in check. South has some talent – WR/DB Spencer Coleman could be a D1 prospect – but I don’t think they have the horses to hang with the Colts for a full 48. I’d say 4-0 is likely, with nothing less than 3-1.
Willamette Wolverines (6-4)
9/4 Willamette @ South Albany. SA made their first playoff appearance last year, after making 4 in a row around the turn of the century. They even won a game, before becoming cannon fodder for Sherwood. They run a tricky ground-based offense, but Willamette should have the speed to match it. The question will be if Willamette can score enough to put them over the top, after losing star RB Craig Loper and QB Spencer Phillips.
9/11 Klamath Union @ Willamette. Will-Hi won a 22-21 thriller at KU last year, taking the lead for good with just over a minute remaining. Loper actually played sparingly in last year’s game, suffering a shoulder injury; returning senior Raphael Hidalgo carried the rushing load, carrying the ball 25 times for 154 yards. Playing in Bethel is always a bonus for the Wolverines, but KU will be coming in strong.
9/18 Willamette @ North Medford. Willamette won 10-7 last year, tying Thurston for the honor of being the first MWL school to beat a 6A school (Thurston beat North Salem the same night). But the Black Tornado should be much improved this season, and return standout QB Martt Mauer. They won’t be struggling for points as they were last season.
9/25 Ashland (7-3) @ Willamette. Willamette won a 42-35 shoot-out last year at Ashland. The stars of last year’s offensive explosions have both graduated: Willamette’s Loper ran for 229 and 3 touchdowns, and Ashland QB Talon Haggard accounted for 384 yards through the air and on the ground, with 5 touchdowns. That’s a lot of missing production, but I think they’ll play the game anyway.
10/2 Willamette @ South Eugene. WHS made it 2 for 2 against 6A schools in ‘08, beating South 21-7 in Bethel. South loses a good QB but should be better overall next season; Willamette is a bit of a mystery.
Prognosis: Willamette gets my vote for “most difficult schedule.” How could it not? Two 6A schools and not a single weak sister in the bunch. Every game will be a challenge, which is more than anybody else in the MWL can say. Well done, Willamette athletic director Barry Bokn. That said, you do have to play the games. 3-2 would be a fantastic launching point into the MWL season. 2-3 is certainly a strong possibility, though, and let’s not forget that Willamette gave up 42.0 points per game in MWL play last year. How much has the defense improved? That said, let’s also not forget that Willamette was 5-0 and ranked #5 in the state after beating all of these teams last year (save for South Albany; Will-Hi played Cottage Grove last year).
Where to be on Friday Nights?
Here’s two candidates for each Friday’s best games, just in case the first one doesn’t suit you.
9/4
Thurston @ Corvallis. I have both of these teams in my preseason Top 5. How could you go wrong? Thurston returns a strong core, but will be adjusting to life post-Tym Pearson. Corvallis returns plenty of skill position talent. Should be much, much closer than last year’s 60-13 romp.
Churchill @ Sheldon. True, Marshfield will be participating in an emotional rivalry game, and Willamette takes to the road against a playoff team, but these two ancient city rivals deserve some love. Last year was a slaughtering by Sheldon, but the two years prior to that were much closer. Churchill has the athletes to hang around.
9/11
Marist @ Marshfield. The last two meetings have been fantastic, and the third one shouldn’t be missed. These two have two of the better aerial assaults in the state, regardless of classification. Marshfield’s out for revenge, Marist is trying to forge even more respect for their move to the MWL in 2010.
Klamath Union @ Willamette. KU was part of a 3-way tie for the SSC crown last year, and put up more points on Thurston than any other team managed to do. They also lost a 1-point heartbreaker to Will-Hi at home. Should be a good one.
9/18
Marist @ Springfield. An instant classic last year gets revived for a second go-around. See first-hand how Springfield has gone about replacing the bulk of last year’s team. And also prep for Marist, who will be here for good sooner than you think.
Marshfield @ Ashland. Two great games in a row between these two. It’s a proven commodity, why not?
9/25
South Eugene @ Thurston. South Eugene played Thurston better than anybody else in ’08 outside of West Albany and Sherwood. The meeting before last year was a 3-point Thurston win in 2005 that decided 2nd place in the MWL. Continuing the theme of good games, Thurston/SE usually equals goodness.
Ashland @ Willamette. Both teams finished with a winning record but failed to secure a playoff bid last year.
10/2
Willamette @ South Eugene. Willamette won by 14 at home last year, now these old rivals will square off in the Axemen’s backyard. SE had plenty of chances last year, but Willamette stood firm.
Madison @ North Eugene. Is NE on the right path? Might as well find out here.
|
|
MWL/SWC Blog 
