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MWL/SWC Blog
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Written by DRH
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Tuesday, 01 September 2009 19:43 Hits: 282 |
Welcome to the ’09 edition of my weekly MWL preview. I offer up a couple predictions, things to watch for, etc. I went 42-9 (82%) last year with my MWL picks; I went 38-9 (81%) in 2007. I seemingly couldn’t predict a Marshfield game to save my life last year. Hopefully that’ll change this season.
Churchill Lancers (0-0) @ Sheldon Irish (0-0)
Since 2000: Sheldon, 8-1. Streak: Sheldon, 8. Last Meeting: Sheldon 50, Churchill 7 (2008).
After starting the decade with a commanding 30-13 win over the Irish – this being QB Alex Brink’s sophomore year at Sheldon – Churchill has dropped 8 straight in the series. A field goal deficit in 2001 was the only year that a game hasn’t ended with a margin in double digits. Sheldon returns some big time talent and are one of a handful of favorites to win state at the 6A level. I think Churchill will get better as the season progresses, but big time questions at QB and RB won’t help the Lancers snap the streak.
Sheldon 38, Churchill 10
North Bend Bulldogs (0-0) @ Marshfield Pirates (0-0)
Since 2000: Marshfield, 9-0. Streak: Marshfield, 19. Last Meeting: Marshfield 39, North Bend 9 (2008).
Marshfield’s authority on the coast is absolute, as evidenced by their 19 straight W’s in the rivalry. This is often a spirited game regardless of the score, but let’s be honest, on paper this looks like Marshfield’s best team since they went 8-2 in 2003. Last year’s game at North Bend wasn’t close, and I don’t expect this one will be, either.
Marshfield 42, North Bend 14
North Eugene Highlanders (0-0) @ Crook County Cowboys (0-0)
Since 2000: Crook County, 3-0. Streak: Crook County, 3. Last Meeting: Crook County 14, North Eugene 7 (2008).
North lost a heartbreaking game at home against CC last year, never mounting much of an offensive threat. RB/LB Michael Bibbee’s return will be welcomed, but he was healthy (and scored NE’s lone touchdown) in last year’s meeting. I’ll take CC at home.
Crook County 20, North Eugene 13
Dallas Dragons (0-0) @ Springfield Millers (0-0)
Since 2000: Springfield, 1-0. Streak: Springfield, 1. Last Meeting: Springfield 42, Dallas 14 (2008).
The new-look Millers hit the field against Dallas to open ’09, a team they took apart on the road in last year’s opener. With a brutal non-league schedule coming up, Springfield needs to win games like this and I think they should be able to. A lot of kids will be playing under the lights for the first time, but Silke Field is a great homefield advantage. Springfield takes it.
Springfield 21, Dallas 7
Thurston Colts (0-0) @ Corvallis Spartans (0-0)
Since 2000: Thurston, 1-0. Streak: Thurston, 1. Last Meeting: Thurston 60, Corvallis 13 (2000).
Thurston bludgeoned Corvallis from the get-go last year, scoring touchdowns on their first six possessions. Expect a closer game this time around. Corvallis’ strength is in their offense, Thurston’s on the defensive side. Despite the homefield advantage, I think Thurston wins; the Colt D should be able to control the pace, and despite the losses on the other side of the ball, the Colts ability to spread you out and create mismatches will find a way to score points.
Thurston 28, Corvallis 17
Willamette Wolverines (0-0) @ South Albany Rebels (0-0)
Since 2000: N/A. Streak: N/A. Last Meeting: N/A.
Which Willamette team will we see this season – the one that started 5-0 last year, ranked #5 in the state? Or the one that finished 1-4 and gave up 55, 33, 47, 27, and 48 points in league games? South Albany was also a tale of two teams last year, although not as night-and-day as Will-Hi proved to be. Against teams not ranked in the 5A top 3, SA went 8-1. Against the 5A top 3 -- #1 West Albany, #2 Thurston, #3 Sherwood – SA went 0-3, losing 49-22, 47-12, and 56-8, respectively. Luckily for SA, Willamette isn’t ranked. Despite the homefield advantage, I’ll take another MWL team on the road. SA runs a run-based offense that’s very effective against teams that struggle with quickness on D. We saw last year in those games against ranked teams – which also included a 16-11 loss to Corvallis – that teams with speed can shut them down. I think the Wolverines have the speed in the front 7 to get the job done.
Willamette 13, South Albany 10
ALSO! (keeping an eye on future MWL schools…)
Marist opens up with a great showdown against Central. Central beat Marist 56-42 last year, and made it all the way to the 4A semifinals game before losing 56-35 to eventual champion Astoria. Marist beat Central in 2007 in the 4A semifinals. These two are very familiar with each other.
Cottage Grove might jump up to 5A in 2010 as well, so it doesn’t hurt to keep tabs on them. They open up with Banks, who went 11-3 last year and rode a hot streak all the way to the 4A championship game.
South Eugene doesn’t open up until next week.
EDIT! North Eugene plays CC next week, not Zero Week. But I'll leave it up anyway. My mistake.
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