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MWL/SWC Blog
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Written by DRH
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Thursday, 22 October 2009 16:26 Hits: 190 |
#4 Thurston Colts (5-1, 2-0) @ North Eugene Highlanders (3-3, 0-2)
Since 2000: Thurston, 8-1. Streak: Thurston, 3. Last Meeting: Thurston 68, North Eugene 20 (2008)
A week after dropping 68 points at Willamette, Thurston improved slightly on the total and put up 69 at home against Springfield, extending their win streak in the city rivalry to 19. What to expect from the North Eugene defense, which gave up 68 points to Thurston last season?
The key here is to keep the Colt offense off the field. Statistically, QB Chance Hendrickson is having the best season of any QB in 5A. He’s a 64% passer, throwing for 1,648 yards, 19 TDs, and only 3 INTs. Junior RB Tyler Johnson is averaging 9.4 yards per carry (470 yards on 50 carries), and senior RB Michael Livingston is averaging 7.7 YPC (363 yards on 47 carries). Pick your poison with the Colts, they can beat you in several ways. How, then, to keep them off the field?
Feed Michael Bibbee. The Oregon State-bound RB/LB has already topped the 1,000 yard mark (1,116 yards on 122 carries, 9.2 YPC). He’s a force. While run D is Thurston’s strength on that side of the ball, if North Eugene doesn’t try to churn out yards on the ground to keep the clock moving and pick up first downs, I fear this will be Thurston’s 3rd straight 60+ point outburst. North has, however, given up 42 and 55 points in consecutive weeks (42 to Parkrose, 55 to Marshfield). It’s entirely plausible that it will happen anyway.
Thurston 56, North Eugene 14
Marshfield Pirates (4-3, 1-1) @ Willamette Wolverines (1-6, 0-2)
Since 2000: Marshfield, 5-4. Streak: Marshfield, 1. Last Meeting: Marshfield 47, Willamette 12 (2008)
After Will-Hi dominated the series early on in the decade, it’s turned back in favor of the Pirates in recent years (though Willamette got one back in ’07). I think the trend continues here; Willamette may be better than their record might indicate, but QB Kyle Tedder is putting on a show for MWL fans around the area and I don’t know if Will-Hi has the horses to keep up with him Friday night.
Willamette is getting healthier, which is great, but they’ve given up at least 30 points in each of their league games after not letting any of their first five non-league opponents top the mark – eerily reminiscent of last year’s defensive collapse. Can the Wolverines turn it around?
It will, of course, all come down to whether or not they can keep a lid on Tedder. The Marshfield senior is the best dual-threat QB in the MWL, and perhaps the state – he’s topped 1,000 yards passing with 10 touchdowns through the air (a 60% passer, too) and he’s rushed for just under 700 yards and 11 TDs.
Marshfield 31, Willamette 21
Springfield Millers (2-5, 1-1) @ #8 Churchill Lancers (6-1, 2-0)
Since 2000: Churchill, 7-2. Streak: Springfield, 1. Last Meeting: Springfield 21, Churchill 7 (2008)
Springfield got a rare win in their long-standing history with Churchill in ’08, which helped forge a 3-way tie for second place in the MWL that found Springfield on the wrong end of a coin flip to determine playoff seeding.
Churchill is hitting their stride, winners of six straight. They’re only allowing 11.8 PPG during their win streak, and most importantly of all, they’ve already notched two MWL wins (@ Marshfield, Willamette). A win here against Springfield (and a Thurston win over North Eugene) would set up a huge game between a pair of undefeated league foes next week.
Springfield has gone up against two of 5A’s best the last two weeks, losing 56-7 to #3 Sherwood and 69-20 to #4 Thurston. Churchill, ranked #8 in the latest 5A poll, won’t make life much easier on the Millers. Back-up QB Spencer Savelich, a junior, rallied the Lancers to a 21-20 win at Coos Bay two weeks ago, and was 16/24 for 178 yards and 3 TDs last week against Willamette. If starter Cody Kloehn isn’t able to go again this week, the Lancer O remains in good hands. I think the Lancers bring too much to the plate for Springfield to handle.
Churchill 34, Springfield 13
Last Week: 3-0.
Season Total: 28-6.
What if the Playoffs Started Today?
1. THS 2-0
2. CHS 2-0
3. MHS 1-1
3. SHS 1-1
5. WHS 0-2
5. NEHS 0-2
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