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MWL/SWC Blog
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Written by DRH
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Thursday, 29 October 2009 14:13 Hits: 229 |
An onslaught of midterms have crunched my free time this week, so we’re going to keep this short and sweet. The exact opposite of that Springfield @ Thurston game two weeks ago, which seemed to go on for eleven hours.
#8 Churchill Lancers (7-1, 3-0) @ #4 Thurston Colts (6-1, 3-0)
The latest MWL game of the year comes in the form of Churchill vs. Thurston – the last of the undefeated league schools. A Churchill win clinches the #1 seed for the Lancers; a Thurston win just means the Colts still have to beat Marshfield in Coos Bay in the regular season finale to claim the #1 seed.
A monsoon seems to be sitting over the valley, which is to say, the weather does not appear to be ideal for the Colts. Not these Colts, anyway – perhaps the old school Don Stone Colts, who were no strangers to running it up the gut on 3rd and 14. But Thurston’s aerial attack will definitely be under scrutiny in the wet conditions. I actually think that’s a GOOD thing – the deeper into the playoffs you go, the worse the weather gets. I don’t think Thurston will shy away from throwing the ball Friday night. You have to run your schemes regardless of what Mother Nature has up her sleeve. No better time than the present to practice.
I don’t like playing the common opponent game, but Churchill’s narrow win over Springfield last week was baffling. Say what you will about Thurston’s level of competition, but the Colts are blowing the doors off of everybody not named “South Eugene.” Churchill is winning, but Thurston is dominating. I’ll take the Colts at home. I have nothing but respect for the Lancer D, and WRs Graham/Determan will be a big test for Thurston’s secondary, but Thurston is the better team.
Thurston 34, Churchill 17
Marshfield Pirates (5-3, 2-1) @ Springfield Millers (2-6, 1-2)
The Millers are on the wrong side of two extraordinary MWL streaks: a 19 game losing streak to archrival Thurston, and a 21 game losing streak to Marshfield. They couldn’t beat the Colts in 2009, but can they beat the Pirates?
Springfield bounced back well from their 69-20 drubbing at Thurston by losing a heartbreaker at Churchill, 22-21. They showed strong signs of life, and a desire to finish the season off on a right note. Consider this the start of Springfield’s de facto playoff run: win and they’re tied in the standings with Marshfield, and they’d hold the tiebreaker. With winless (in MWL play) Willamette up next, and Marshfield needing to beat Thurston still, Springfield would be the clear favorite to claim the MWL #3 seed. Can they do it? Sure. Will they?
God, I hope so. That’s not a knock on Marshfield in any way – I just think Springfield got their hearts broken last year, coming up on the wrong side of a coin flip and missing the postseason altogether – and I think the program needs the shot in the arm that the playoffs could provide. That said… I just don’t know if they can stop QB Kyle Tedder and the Pirate machine. Playing at Silke will help, but they’ve got one hell of a battle on their hands. That said, I wouldn’t bet the farm.
PROVE ME WRONG, MILLER MOB!
Marshfield 28, Springfield 20
Willamette Wolverines (1-7, 0-3) @ North Eugene Highlanders (3-4, 0-3)
The battle to escape the cellar – who ya got? Regardless of their combined 0-6 record, I think this is a fascinating game. I’ve said all year that Willamette is better than their record, and North Eugene probably is, too.
The running games should be on display here. NE’s Michael Bibbee and Will-Hi’s Raphael Hidalgo are two of the MWL’s best, and neither defense is spectacular against the run.
I think Willamette is due here – they don’t often lose to NE, and they’re probably more talented all-around. Look for WR Taylor Woodke to have a big game.
Willamette 35, North Eugene 28
Last Week: 3-0.
Season Total: 31-6.
WHAT IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY?
1. Thurston 3-0
1. Churchill 3-0
3. Marshfield 2-1
4. Springfield 1-2
5. North Eugene 0-3
5. Willamette 0-3
Like I said, the Marshfield/Springfield game is huge. Marshfield clinches a playoff berth with a win, and is probably on the outside looking in with a loss. Springfield is done with a loss, and they’re in the driver’s seat for the #3 with a win. Churchill can clinch the #1 seed with a win due to head-to-head wins over Thurston and Marshfield.
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MWL/SWC Blog 
